FERTILITY INTENTIONS AND BEHAVIOR: A LIFE COURSE VIEW

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The proposed work adopts a life course perspective in which fertility intentions and behavior are conceptualized as unfolding processes rather than as static outcomes. Intentions and behavior are influenced by individual attitudes and by familial ties and labor force participation. Further, we see those individual attitudes and by familial ties and labor force participation. Further, we see those individual attitudes, familial ties, and labor force experiences as themselves socially and normatively constrained by structural and ideological forces that are associated with gender, ethnicity, and social class. our basic hypothesis is that both fertility intentions and fertility behavior have the same individual and structural/ideological determinants. If that hypothesis is true, then fertility intentions ar a useful, although imperfect, indicator of future behavior. If it is not true, the nature and extent of the differences between the determinants of intentions and those of behavior will shed new light on the meaning of "unintended fertility". Data will be taken from the first and second waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH1 and NSFH2). NSFH1 is a rich source of life course data, and includes attitudinal data that provide insight into individual motivations. NSFH2 updates those measures, and allows fertility between the 2 waves to be analyzed prospectively. To begin, we will use first wave data to model initial fertility intentions. Next, we will use initial fertility intentions in a model to predict subsequent fertility. The determinants of both intentions and behavior will thus be examined in a context where behavior (and its consequences) cannot influence intention. The magnitude of the effect of fertility intentions on fertility behavior, and the extent to which intentions capture initial circumstances, will be analyzed in detail, with close attention given to the influence of gender, race/ethnicity, and social class.