Breast Cancer: Role of Early Detection, Treatment and Prevention

描述(由申请人提供)： 它计划将早先开发的随机模型应用于与美国人口相关的乳腺癌问题。将研究的问题包括：估计2005-2020年期间美国乳腺癌的死亡率；调查亚人群的死亡率；例如非裔美国人、未参保人口和各种情景；继续调查最佳筛查计划；调查低报在DCIS后浸润性乳腺癌SEER中的作用；调查如果服用他莫昔芬或瑞洛昔芬作为预防药物的妇女人数增加对死亡率的影响；开发一个公共网站(A)，使研究人员能够利用我们的乳腺癌理论模型，(B)向公众传达任何筛查计划的乳腺癌预测死亡率和假阳性率。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): It is planned to apply the stochastic model developed earlier to breast cancer issues associated with the U.S. population. Among the issues which will be studied are: estimating the U.S. breast cancer mortality for the period 2005-2020; investigate mortality for sub-populations; e.g. African-American, uninsured population and various scenarios; continue investigations of optimal screening schedules; investigate the role of the underreporting in SEER of invasive breast cancer following DCIS; investigate the influence on mortality if the number of women taking tamoxifen or reloxifene as a preventive agent is increased; develop a public web site (a) which will allow investigators to make use of our theoretical breast cancer model and (b) to communicate to the general public the breast cancer predicted mortality and false positive rate for any screening program.