RESEARCHING THE SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF A LOCAL METHAMPHETAMINE MARKET

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目调查了非法药物使用的社会环境背景的一个重要特征。所有使用者都直接或间接地参与非法药物经济。了解生产者、消费者和分销商的市场作用对于预防、治疗和执法至关重要。然而，毒品市场是动态的;它们不断适应内部和外部力量。不存在任何理论（或方法论）来描述这种动态。这项为期五年的研究开发并系统地实地测试基于代理的建模（ABM）方法，以代表与凯霍加和峰会县，俄亥俄州甲基苯丙胺市场相关的消费者，经销商和健康行为。这种方法将为研究人员提供一个全新的视角来观察互动行为的结果，并有机会进行真实的世界中不可能进行的实验。为了进行模拟编程，我们将利用人种学方法（特别是决策树建模技术）来描述市场参与者的角色，动机，行为和互动。为了验证和扩展这些数据，我们将使用生态瞬时评估（EMA）收集参与者的日常行为，药物消耗，成本和相互作用的定量测量。我们将通过三波面板研究（N=204）实施这些技术;面板研究的数据将表征样本，告知模拟参数，并帮助验证模拟输出。我们的模拟随后将结合描述性人种学数据和定量纵向数据，以便“代理人”（在虚拟市场内互动的模拟人）的行为将准确反映现实世界的毒品市场的现实。该项目产生的基于模拟的计算机实验室将为政策制定者和研究人员提供一种工具，用于：（1）动态表示非法药物市场运作，（2）试验代理人行为和市场参数和条件，以及（3）评估旨在影响结果的“如果”政策情景。运用复杂性理论，系统地结合民族志的丰富细节和ABM聚合社会复杂行为的能力，本项目将具有很大的实际效用。该项目的具体目标是：（1）对俄亥俄州凯霍加县和萨米特县的甲基苯丙胺市场进行人种学研究。(2)使用生态瞬时评估（EMA）丰富这些数据，收集日常药物消费，生产，销售，决策，策略等的自我报告数据。（3）使用204名活跃的甲基苯丙胺使用者的小组调查提供模拟参数。(4)构建一个ABM模拟的计算机实验室，再现当地甲基苯丙胺市场如何运作，整合社会（即，健康和经济行为。(5)使用ABM模拟进行实验，以：了解市场如何运作和运作;创建和测试旨在影响结果的基于政策的干预方案（例如，执行，治疗和推广）;以及建模风险行为（例如，共用针头，以性交易毒品）影响艾滋病毒的传播。公共卫生相关性：吸毒者的风险行为受到他们获得药物的市场的影响。然而，这些市场是动态的和反应性的，这使得理解和建模这种相互作用具有挑战性。本研究的目的是实地测试一个可运输的，理论上知情的，跨学科的研究方法，使用基于代理的模拟评估市场动态及其对甲基苯丙胺的分布和艾滋病毒相关的风险行为的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project investigates a significant feature of the socioenvironmental context of illicit drug use. Directly or indirectly, all users engage the illicit drug economy. Understanding the market roles of producers, consumers, and distributors is critical for prevention, treatment and law enforcement. However, drug markets are dynamic; they continuously adapt to internal and external forces. No theory (or methodology) exists to describe such dynamics. This five-year study develops and systematically field-tests agent-based modeling (ABM) methods to represent consumer, dealer, and health behaviors associated with the methamphetamine market in Cuyahoga and Summit Counties, OH. This approach will provide researchers with an entirely new perspective for observing outcomes of interactive behaviors, as well as the opportunity to perform experiments not possible in the real world. To program simulations, we will characterize roles, motives, behaviors, and interactions of market participants utilizing ethnographic methods (specifically, decision-tree modeling techniques). To validate and extend these data, we will collect quantitative measures of participants' daily behaviors, drug consumption, costs, and interactions using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA). We will implement these techniques through a three-wave panel study (N=204); data from the panel study will characterize the sample, inform simulation parameters, and help validate simulation output. Our simulations will subsequently incorporate both descriptive ethnographic data and quantitative longitudinal data so that the behaviors of "agents" (simulated people interacting within the virtual market) will accurately reflect the realities of the real-world drug market. The simulation-based computer laboratory produced by this project will offer policymakers and researchers a tool for: (1) dynamically representing illicit drug market operations, (2) experimenting with agent behaviors and market parameters and conditions, and (3) evaluating "what if" policy scenarios intended to influence outcomes. Applying Complexity theory by systematically combining the rich detail of ethnography with ABM's power to aggregate socially complex behaviors, this project will have great practical utility. The specific aims of this project are to: (1) Conduct ethnographic research on the methamphetamine market in Cuyahoga and Summit Counties, OH. (2) Enrich these data using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), collecting self-report data on daily drug consumption, production, sales, decisions, strategies etc. (3) Inform simulation parameters using a panel survey of 204 active methamphetamine users. (4) Construct a computer lab of ABM simulations reproducing how the local methamphetamine market operates integrating both social (i.e., health) and economic behaviors. (5) Experiment with the ABM simulations to: understand how the market operates and functions; create and test policy-based intervention scenarios (e.g. enforcement, treatment, and outreach) intended to impact outcomes; and model risk behaviors (e.g., needle sharing, trading drugs for sex) influencing the spread of HIV. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Drug users risk behaviors are influenced by the markets in which they acquire drugs. However, these markets are dynamic and reactive which make understanding and modeling this interaction challenging. The objective of this research is to field test a transportable, theoretically informed, and inter-disciplinary research methodology using agent-based simulation to evaluate market dynamics and their impact on methamphetamine distribution and HIV-related risk behaviors.