Hydrologic extremes and climate variability

极端水文和气候变化

• 批准号: 4264-2006
• 负责人: Watt, Edgar
• 金额: $ 1.46万
• 依托单位: Queen's University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2007-01-01 至 2008-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=363114
• 关键词: Hydrologic; extremes; climate; variability

Many hydraulic structures (e.g. large dams, dyking systems, urban stormwater infrastructure) are designed with a design life of 100 years or more. Accordingly, many of these structures,which are being planned or designed today, will still be in service in the 22nd century and, therefore, their operation will be impacted by the climatic changes that are predicted to occur over the period 2005-2100. However, these structures are being designed for observed climatic conditions typically over the past 30 years, often ignoring the fact that this does not account for climate variability in the form of long-period cycles. This situation is not acceptable; a new design strategy, which account for climatic change and climate variability, is needed to prevent loss of human life and damages resulting from under-design or over-design. Expected benefits of such a strategy include improved dam safety, guaranteed supply of drinking water, reduced flooding and pollution, prevention of loss of biodiversity, and reduced cost of urban stormwater infrastructure. This research will build on past successes in hydrologic research, an understanding of the underlying physical processes, and experience in engineering practice to develop better methods for: a)designing urban stormwater infrastructure, b) identifying floodplains, c) sizing waater storage structures, d)designing spillways on large dams, e) calculating low flows in streams for use in reviewing water taking permits.

许多水利结构（如大坝、堤坝系统、城市雨水基础设施）的设计寿命为100年或更长。因此，许多目前正在规划或设计的这些结构在22世纪仍将继续使用，因此，它们的运行将受到预计在2005-2100年期间发生的气候变化的影响。然而，这些结构是根据通常在过去30年中观测到的气候条件设计的，往往忽略了这样一个事实，即这并没有考虑到长期周期形式的气候变异。这种情况是不能接受的;需要一种考虑到气候变化和气候多变性的新的设计战略，以防止因设计不足或设计过度而造成的人命损失和损害。这一战略的预期效益包括：改善大坝安全，保障饮用水供应，减少洪水和污染，防止生物多样性丧失，以及降低城市雨水基础设施的成本。这项研究将建立在过去的水文研究的成功，基本的物理过程的理解，并在工程实践中的经验，以开发更好的方法：a）设计城市雨水基础设施，B）确定洪泛区，c）确定蓄水结构的大小，d）设计大坝上的溢洪道，e）计算低流量的河流用于审查取水许可证。