Hydrologic extremes and climate variability

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Many hydraulic structures (e.g. large dams, dyking systems, urban stormwater infrastructure) are designed with a design life of 100 years or more. Accordingly, many of these structures,which are being planned or designed today, will still be in service in the 22nd century and, therefore, their operation will be impacted by the climatic changes that are predicted to occur over the period 2005-2100. However, these structures are being designed for observed climatic conditions typically over the past 30 years, often ignoring the fact that this does not account for climate variability in the form of long-period cycles. This situation is not acceptable; a new design strategy, which account for climatic change and climate variability, is needed to prevent loss of human life and damages resulting from under-design or over-design. Expected benefits of such a strategy include improved dam safety, guaranteed supply of drinking water, reduced flooding and pollution, prevention of loss of biodiversity, and reduced cost of urban stormwater infrastructure. This research will build on past successes in hydrologic research, an understanding of the underlying physical processes, and experience in engineering practice to develop better methods for: a)designing urban stormwater infrastructure, b) identifying floodplains, c) sizing waater storage structures, d)designing spillways on large dams, e) calculating low flows in streams for use in reviewing water taking permits.