Coherence of probability and contingency judgements

概率和偶然性判断的一致性

• 批准号: 249537-2007
• 负责人: Mandel, David
• 金额: $ 1.37万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2008-01-01 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=394361
• 关键词: Coherence; probability; contingency; judgements

A fundamental requirement of human rationality is that judgments be internally consistent and logically coherent. Studies of systematic violations of coherence have revealed much about the cognitive processes underlying judgment, and tests of coherence are of pragmatic value given that they can offer important indications of judgment quality. The overarching objective of this research program is to develop a comprehensive theoretical account of the cognitive processes underlying probability judgment and more complex types of judgment that require the integration of frequency or probability information, such as judgments of contingency and probable causation. The proposed research, which will be comprised of 11 core experiments, will directly build upon recent theoretical developments in cognitive psychology that address the nature of judgment processes. One set of experiments will provide critical tests of recent theories that make specific predictions regarding how information is mentally represented and how such representations, in turn, are used as inputs into assessment processes, which proximally determine judgment responses. A second set of experiments will examine whether systematic violations of coherence in judgment that have been documented in tasks in which all of the relevant information is explicitly described in text are similarly manifested in tasks in which the same information must be acquired through exposure to individual cases presented on a trial-by-trial basis. The final set of experiments will examine whether more complex types of judgment, including causal and non-causal contingency judgments, also exhibit systematic violations of coherence criteria. In particular, these experiments will examine how the formulation of a hypothesis about an inter-event relation influences the manner in which information pertinent to contingency judgment is integrated. The proposed research will draw upon multiple experimental methods and include measures of judgment, belief, response time, representation, and assessment processes. The research findings will be disseminated in peer-review, cognitive psychology journals and at scientific conferences on judgment and reasoning.

人类理性的一个基本要求是判断在内部是一致的，在逻辑上是连贯的。对连贯性系统性违反的研究揭示了判断背后的认知过程，连贯性测试具有重要的语用价值，因为它们可以提供判断质量的重要指标。本研究计划的首要目标是发展一个全面的理论说明，说明潜在的概率判断和更复杂类型的判断，这些判断需要整合频率或概率信息，如偶然性和可能因果关系的判断。这项提议的研究将由11个核心实验组成，将直接建立在认知心理学中解决判断过程本质的最新理论发展的基础上。一组实验将为最近的理论提供关键测试，这些理论对信息是如何在心理上表征的，以及这种表征如何反过来被用作评估过程的输入，而评估过程最终决定了判断反应。第二组实验将检查在文本中明确描述所有相关信息的任务中记录的判断连贯性的系统性违反是否同样表现在必须通过逐个试验呈现的个别案例获得相同信息的任务中。最后一组实验将检验更复杂类型的判断，包括因果和非因果偶然性判断，是否也表现出系统性地违反一致性标准。特别是，这些实验将研究关于事件间关系的假设的形成如何影响与权变判断相关的信息被整合的方式。拟议的研究将借鉴多种实验方法，包括判断、信念、反应时间、表征和评估过程的措施。研究结果将在同行评议、认知心理学期刊和关于判断和推理的科学会议上发表。