Methods for estimating crash modification functions for road safety interventions

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Modern road engineering practice requires explicit consideration of the safety consequences of decisions in designing a new facility or improving an existing one. This is a fundamental principle in the Transportation Association of Canada's Geometric Design Guide, which is regarded around the world as ground-breaking in this respect. Unfortunately, reliable explicit knowledge on safety implications is relatively scarce and the full potential of this Guide is unrealized. The fundamental objective of the proposed research is to make advances in the methodology for deriving crash modification factors or functions that are used to quantify the safety implications of road design decisions. Extensive use will be made of data from the Highway Safety Information System, and from the Ontario provincial and the city of Toronto crash and roadway databases. The proposed research will make a significant contribution in the fulfillment of "Road Safety Vision 2010", as set forth by the Canadian Council of Ministers for Transportation and Highway Safety, to reduce the average number of road users killed or seriously injured in Canada by 30% by the 2008-2010 period (compared to 1996-2001). To this end, there will be appropriate focus on the roadway elements and interventions most relevant to the targets of this vision. The research is particularly timely in the light of a major U.S.-led initiative to develop a first edition of a Highway Safety Manual (HSM) by 2008, and especially in the light of the reality that there will be surprisingly little information in the HSM on reliable crash modification factors or functions.