Stochastic Index Numbers and Their Application in Accounting, Economics and Finance

随机指数及其在会计、经济和金融中的应用。物价指数，如消费者物价指数和所有普通商品指数，是整个经济中最重要的经济统计数字之一。但是，尽管它们很重要，目前构建的价格指数并没有使用基础价格数据中所有可用的信息，即单个价格之间的分散。该项目将开发和应用一种新的方法来处理指数，该方法将纳入这些信息，并导致易于处理的方法来估计指数值的整个分布，而不仅仅是一个数字。这种方法的实际用途将通过在会计（可持续收益）、经济学（实际汇率）和金融（股价）中的应用来证明。

Stochastic Index Numbers and Their Application in Accounting, Economics and Finance. Index numbers of prices, such as the Consumer Price Index and the All Ordinaries Index, are among the most important economic statistics for the whole economy. But despite their importance, currently constructed price indexes do not use all the information available in the underlying price data, namely the dispersion among the individual prices. This project will develop and apply a methodology for a new approach to index numbers that incorporates this information and leads to tractable ways of estimating the whole distribution of the index value, rather than just one number. The practical usefulness of this mthodology will be demonstrated with applications in accounting (sustainable earnings), economics (real exchange rates) and finance (share prices).