Ecosystem engineers: modelling organism-environment feedback

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Predicting population size and spatial distribution lies at the heart of management plans for biological control, fisheries, disease, wildlife, invasive species, and endangered species. It is no surprise that abiotic environmental conditions are important determinants of population dynamics. However, some species have large effects on the physical environment which alter populations. For example, plant architecture creates physical structure in space, which may alter abiotic factors (e.g., wind speed) in the immediate vicinity of the organism. This alteration of the physical environment may impact both the plant's own population and the populations of other species. In my research program, I investigate the effects of small-scale spatial and temporal structure of the environment on the dynamics and spread of populations. More importantly, I also study how organisms themselves create or modify this structure in order to predict how such feedback between organisms and physical environment alters our ability to manage populations. I propose three subprojects that each address aspects of this overall research program. First, I will develop a simple and general modelling framework to describe the feedback between organisms and physical environment. Second, I will examine the role of climate variation, and organism modification of climate conditions, in determining establishment probabilities and spread rates of non-native species. Finally, I propose to develop and test general models which predict the effects of plant architecture on the pest species such as aphids, and the ability beneficial predators, such as minute pirate bugs and lacewings, to control these agricultural pests. Together these projects will provide both theory and experimental data which may demonstrate the importance of considering organism-environment interactions when predicting population dynamics.