Paleoclimate in the Caribbean: comparing the record of temperature, precipitation, and ENSO from late holocene and last glacial cave calcites

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The most dramatic features of our weather seem to originate in the tropics: the hurricanes, the spectacular monsoon floods or failures, the El Nino events. Accounts in the media suggest that these events are becoming more frequent and more intense. Even worse, we have been warned of the potential failure of the ocean circulation system, resulting in a freeze-up of the northern regions. How much of this is true? What is "normal"? What has happened in the past?