Individual-level modeling for infectious disease spread

传染病传播的个体水平建模

• 批准号: 340888-2010
• 负责人: Deardon, Robert
• 金额: $ 1.09万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2013-01-01 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=527197
• 关键词: Individual; level; modeling; infectious; disease

Infectious diseases are of great importance across society. Epidemic outbreaks of diseases such as influenza, human papillomavirus (HPV), SARS, or foot-and-mouth disease, can pose direct threats to public health and/or have serious economic effects. In order to control such diseases, it is often vital to understand how the disease spreads geographically over time, and what factors lead to some individuals becoming infected, and some not. To this end, a new class of mathematical models, individual-level models (ILMs) for infectious diseases, has been developed. These models are intuitive, flexible, and have been shown to accurately describe the patterns of previously observed epidemics over space and time. However, ILMs are relatively new and so there are many issues about how to model various infectious disease problems that remain to be resolved.

传染病在整个社会都很重要。流感、人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）、非典型肺炎（SARS）或口蹄疫等疾病的流行病爆发，可对公众健康构成直接威胁和/或造成严重的经济影响。为了控制这类疾病，了解疾病是如何随着时间的推移在地理上传播的，以及哪些因素导致一些人感染，而另一些人没有感染，往往是至关重要的。为此目的，开发了一类新的数学模型，即传染病的个人水平模型。这些模型直观、灵活，并已被证明能够准确描述以前观察到的流行病在空间和时间上的模式。然而，ilm相对较新，因此在如何模拟各种传染病问题方面存在许多有待解决的问题。