Theoretical studies of large-scale atmospheric dynamics

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The overall goal of my NSERC Discovery Grant research program is to strengthen the theoretical basis of large-scale atmospheric dynamics, including its representation in sophisticated numerical models such as are used for climate and weather prediction. The purpose of this research is a more complete understanding of past atmospheric behaviour and more reliable predictions of future behaviour. This overall goal is achieved through an evolving suite of topic areas, ranging from the fundamental to the applied and involving mathematical theory, modelling, and data analysis, with a strong but not exclusive emphasis on the role of the stratosphere in the climate system. The evolution of my core research program over the years has been strongly influenced by my role as P.I., since 1992, of a series of projects supporting the development and use of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as well as by my significant involvement in international assessments concerning the science of ozone and climate, especially the WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessments. These activities have motivated me to focus my efforts on the critical question of how well we can trust the predictions of models such as CMAM, which are used in these assessments to guide development of policy and will increasingly be used to inform climate-change impacts and mitigation strategies. Addressing that question requires a multi-pronged approach which includes improving the physical self-consistency of the model formulation, testing the model with observations, assessing the physical credibility and robustness of the model response to external forcings, and understanding natural variability including nonlocal couplings in both space and time.