"Resistance, resilience, and vulnerability of boreal forests to environmental change"

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The earth is currently experiencing a period of widespread environmental change; many of these changes are occurring particularly rapidly at high latitudes. In the boreal forest, we expect to see ecosystems responding to multiple dimensions of environmental change, including altered climate, disturbance, and species composition. Strong stabilizing feedbacks and high ecological inertia, or resistance, in many forest systems mean that these ecological responses are unlikely to occur in a gradual, incremental way. Instead, we can expect sudden, non-linear changes in ecosystem states that are triggered by disturbance or other ecological thresholds. Our ability to predict and manage the resilience of forest ecosystems, or their capacity to rebound from disturbance or stressors, will depend on our understanding of the underlying mechanisms that shape forest dynamics. This research proposal focuses on several key processes related to fire and climate that we think influence the resilience and vulnerability of boreal forests to change: a) the role of fire or other disturbance in creating opportunities for rapid, threshold changes, such as the invasion of new species; b) the impacts of species change on the structure of forest ecosystems and they way they grow and develop; c) patterns of tree growth responses to climate that may predict an impending switch in forest type; and d) interactions between small patches and large landscapes that affect the way in which forest landscapes will shift and respond to environmental change. Research results will teach us about where boreal forests are most likely to be vulnerable to change, thus developing our potential to anticipate, manage, and adapt to ecological changes in the coming century.