Temporal metacommunity dynamics

我的研究项目研究水生和陆生环境中生物群落的结构和动态。我的研究是围绕着元生态动态的概念，探讨当地社区之间的传播如何影响当地的非生物和生物环境过程。我相信，有了这个非常普遍的概念，生态学家将能够提供一个非常强大的框架来解释我们在周围社区中发现的分类组成的时空结构差异。此外，它将提供一个预测框架，研究与保护和气候变化有关的应用问题，因为它侧重于可以量化的机制。我使用观察，实验，建模和综合技术的组合来实现从解释到预测的过渡。 我将扩展我的元性研究的专业知识，探索被忽视的时间动态的影响，与提供一个预测模型系统的经验元性的一个例子的最终目标。为了实现这一目标，我将继续使用我的研究策略，结合详细的研究，在丘吉尔rockpool metacquity系统，分析现有的数据集，并扩大它包括一个建模组件。我的具体目标是：1）测量和模拟亚北极准生态系统中的扩散，2）通过调查扩散对当地社区之间的时间同步性的影响和一系列系统中当地社区内的优先效应，测试准生态的时间动态，第三章将联合收割机的竞争实验结果与目标1和目标2的结果相结合，以参数化丘吉尔岩池变形性的预测模型，并测试这个模型的时间预测。在这5年之后，我计划通过开始监测哈德逊湾整个纬度梯度上沿着的岩石崖来增加我研究的空间尺度，并确定环境对预测和实际气候变化的反应速度。

My research program examines the structure and dynamics of biological communities in both aquatic and terrestrial contexts. My research is organized around the concept of metacommunity dynamics which explores how dispersal between local communities influences local abiotic and biotic environmental processes. I believe that with this very general concept, ecologists will be able to provide a very powerful framework to explain the differences in spatial and temporal structure in taxonomic composition we detect in communities around us. Moreover it will provide a predictive framework to study applied problems related to conservation and climate change since it focuses on mechanisms that can be quantified. I use a combination of observational, experimental, modelling, and synthesizing techniques to make this transition from explanation to prediction. I will expand my expertise of metacommunity research to explore the neglected effect of temporal dynamics, with the ultimate objective of providing an example of a predictive model system for an empirical metacommunity. To achieve this, I will continue to use my research strategy of combining detailed studies in the Churchill rockpool metacommunity system, and analyses of existing data sets, and expand it by including a modelling component. My specific objectives are to: 1) measure and model dispersal in a subarctic metacommunity system, 2) test temporal dynamics of metacommunities by investigating the effects of dispersal on temporal synchrony between local communities and priority effects within local communities in a range of systems, 3) combine the results of competition experiments with the results of Objectives 1 and 2 to parametrize a predictive model for the Churchill rock pool metacommunity and test the temporal predictions of this model. After these 5 years, I plan to increase the spatial scale of my studies by starting to monitoring rock bluffs along the full latitudinal gradient of Hudson Bay, and determine how fast the environment will react to the predicted and actual climate changes.