Past trends and future risk of climate extremes in southern Australia

澳大利亚南部极端气候的过去趋势和未来风险

• 批准号: FT230100648
• 负责人: A/Prof Jonathan Tyler
• 金额: $ 66.96万
• 依托单位: The University of Adelaide
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: ARC Future Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2023-07-01 至 2027-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/FT230100648
• 关键词: Past; trends; future; risk; climate

Prolonged droughts and periods of heightened flood and fire risk present a major challenge for Australia’s society and economy. This proposal aims to better resolve the causes and risks of decadal climate extremes through a suite of high quality records of temperature, rainfall/evaporation and humidity in southern Australia over 2000 years. Novel geochemical analyses will be developed and applied to lake sediments – method development which is likely to benefit climate, minerals and biosecurity research. New knowledge of mechanisms underlying climate variability is expected to benefit fundamental research, while future-facing models will allow land managers and policy makers to better anticipate extraordinary climate events.

长期干旱和洪水及火灾风险加剧的时期对澳大利亚的社会和经济构成了重大挑战。该提案旨在通过澳大利亚南部2000年来一套高质量的温度、降雨/蒸发和湿度记录，更好地解决十年极端气候的原因和风险。将开发新的地球化学分析方法，并将其应用于湖泊沉积物-开发可能有利于气候、矿物和生物安全研究的方法。关于气候变异性机制的新知识预计将有利于基础研究，而面向未来的模型将使土地管理者和决策者能够更好地预测异常气候事件。