Projection of Abies balsamea distribution under conditions of climate change: incorporation of species plasticity to environmental change

气候变化条件下冷杉分布的预测：物种可塑性与环境变化的结合

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05709
• 负责人: Bourque, Charles
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: University of New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=613702
• 关键词: Projection; Abies; balsamea; distribution; under

Having intially been used strictly for silvicultural purposes, provenance tests are now being viewed as well-suited to study intra-specific variation in adaptation of trees to changes in climate. Studies which assess tree performance under changing climatic conditions, when conducted under controlled conditions are, however, limited by spatial and temporal restrictions. These limitations make long term provenance plots established in North America useful in providing data that may give reliable information on species performance outside their natural range. An important physiological process in plant productivity is photosynthesis, the rate of which can be influenced by provenance variation. Photosynthetic response of plant species to variations in environment can be assessed at both the small, leaf-level, and large, ecosystem-level, scales. An eddy covariance tower in the Acadian Research Forest, southcentral New Brunswick (NB), will provide the data needed to characterise photosynthesis at the large, ecosystem scale. Species photosynthetic response at the ecosystem scale is determined by mathematically decomposing tower-based measurements of net CO2 exchange (or the negative of net ecosystem productivity, -NEP) into its component fluxes of gross ecosystem production, associated with light interception and assimilation, and respiration with simple NEP models and numerical optimisation. Information generated by the leaf- and ecosystem-level data collection can then be used to specify the parameters of the same models as a function of leaf-level information. This would allow the use of the models to provide an ecosystem-level characterisation of species response for forests lacking tower data, as is the case for 12 provenances currently growing at the North Star Provenance Test in northwest NB. The seeds for the provenances come from source areas within the present-day range of balsam fir, a commercially- and ecologically-important tree species in Canada. Ecosystem-level species-response functions formulated from the work will help re-define balsam fir distribution projections for a significant part of Atlantic Canada. Current species distribution models use “crisp” thresholds that are derived from assessments of range characteristics related to climate. This work will add a new level of realism (i.e., species plasticity) in balsam fir distribution projections for Atlantic Canada.

种源试验最初严格用于造林目的，现在被认为非常适合研究树木适应气候变化的种内变异。然而，在受控条件下进行的在变化的气候条件下评估树木性能的研究受到空间和时间限制的限制。这些限制使得在北美建立的长期种源地块在提供数据方面很有用，这些数据可能会提供有关物种在其自然范围之外的表现的可靠信息。 光合作用是植物生产力的一个重要生理过程，种源的变异会影响光合作用的速率。植物光合作用对环境变化的响应可以在小尺度（叶水平）和大尺度（生态系统水平）上进行评估。位于新玩法（NB）中南部的北卡罗来纳研究森林的涡度协方差塔将提供在大生态系统尺度上研究光合作用所需的数据。在生态系统尺度上的物种光合反应是通过数学分解塔为基础的测量净CO2交换（或净生态系统生产力的负数，-NEP）到其组件通量的总生态系统生产，与光的拦截和同化，呼吸与简单的NEP模型和数值优化。由叶和生态系统级数据收集产生的信息然后可以用于指定作为叶级信息的函数的相同模型的参数。这将允许使用的模型，以提供一个生态系统级的特性的物种响应森林缺乏塔数据，是目前生长在北星星种源测试西北NB的12个种源的情况。种源的种子来自香脂冷杉的原产地，香脂冷杉是加拿大商业和生态上重要的树种。生态系统层面的物种响应功能制定的工作将有助于重新定义香脂冷杉分布预测的一个重要组成部分，加拿大大西洋。目前的物种分布模型使用的“明确”阈值是从与气候有关的范围特征评估中得出的。这项工作将增加一个新的现实主义水平（即，物种可塑性）在香脂冷杉分布预测大西洋加拿大。