Ionospheric Turbulence, Scintillations and Space Weather Forecast

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The objective of the project is to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of phase and amplitude scintillations observed by the Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, and complement the study with observations by the Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI) receivers of the Expanded Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (ECHAIN) facility. The quantitative analysis of the GPS scintillation observations will be compared to numerical simulations of forward propagation of electromagnetic waves through a model turbulent ionospheric layer. The computations will be used to gain insight about potential mechanisms occurring within the auroral and polar ionospheric regions and causing the scintillation phenomena. The data analysis and the comparison to simulations will help unveil some of the answers to the following fundamental questions: Can a thorough analysis of scintillations observed by a two-dimensional array of GPS ground receivers unveil some of the physical mechanisms governing the evolution of plasma irregularities in the auroral and polar ionospheric E and F regions? What kind of analysis tools should be developed in order to try and reconcile existing knowledge about ionospheric irregularities and scintillation measurements on the ground? Can we gain any insight from computations that attempt to simulate the linear propagation of electromagnetic waves (EMW) through a turbulent ionospheric layer? How about the nonlinear propagation of EMW? Can we develop quantitative measures, such as nowcast and forecast indices, that link ionospheric activity with ground based scintillation observations? And what kind of benchmark should one use to assess the reliability of these indices? Do the ground scintillation measurements carry signatures about the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling (MIC) in particular, and the solar wind-magnetosphere (SWM) coupling in general? The research proposed will have several impacts: the most important one being the study of ionospheric processes in the polar cap and auroral regions, which opens up a direct research window into MIC, which in turn will unveil some of the physical mechanisms affecting the propagation and transmission of EMW in these regions of high interest. The establishment of a reliable scintillation database, and the development of analysis tools as well as predictive indices, will have a significant impact on any forecasting exercise involving the transmission and reception of EMW through the ionospheric medium. The results of the scintillation data analysis will provide spatial and temporal insight into the development and evolution of ionospheric structures. Any predictive insight about the propagation of EMW in the polar and auroral regions will have strong impact in the aerospace, communications and military industries. In the process High Qualified Personal will be trained, including graduate students.