Sustainable agriculture risk modelling and developing satellite derived index insurance

农业风险管理和保险是一个复杂的跨学科课题。该项目旨在通过开发新的和改进的农业保险精算方法，解决精算文献中的一个关键空白。该项目的一个主要方面将是制定一个创新的指数保险计划。尽管指数保险给农业带来了希望，包括可能的成本效益、风险转移、透明度、消除道德风险以及包括发展中国家在内的广泛应用，但迄今为止，指数保险尚未以可持续的方式成功实施。这种缺乏成功的一个主要原因是由于基础风险，这是指用于确定赔偿和实际农场一级损失的指数之间的差异。将从精算角度探讨农业保险的一些基本方面，包括改进产量预测、天气建模和费率制定办法。在加拿大以及世界上许多其他国家，农业保险通过公私合作伙伴关系的方式提供。为了反映这一重要的合作，这项拟议的研究在很大程度上依赖于多利益相关者的方法来解决研究问题，包括与Guy Carpenter & Company（再保险中介机构和农业保险行业的领导者）以及加拿大农业和农业食品（AAFC）的合作。此外，这项研究将与再保险公司Scor和空中客车防务和航天公司合作。预计这项研究将有助于加强加拿大作为农业部门全球领导者的地位，促进创新研发，改善高等教育，改善农业保险，从而为加拿大人带来更大的经济繁荣。这项工作应该是有用的农民，保险公司，再保险公司，生产者组织，和政府，在加拿大和世界各地，以及其他研究人员。

Agricultural risk management and insurance represents a complex and interdisciplinary topic. This project aims to address a critical gap in actuarial literature, through developing new and improved actuarial approaches to agricultural insurance. A major aspect of the project will be on the development of an innovative index-based insurance scheme. Despite the promise that index insurance holds for agriculture, including possible cost efficiencies, risk transfer, transparency, elimination of moral hazard, and wide-scale application, including developing countries, to date index insurance has not been successfully implemented in a sustainable way. A main reason for this lack of success is due to basis risk, which refers to differences between the index used to determine indemnities and actual farm-level loss. A number of fundamental aspects of agricultural insurance will be addressed from an actuarial view point, including improved yield forecasting, weather modelling and ratemaking approaches. Agricultural insurance is delivered through a public-private partnership approach in Canada, as well as in many other countries throughout the world. To reflect this important cooperation, this proposed research relies heavily on a multi-stakeholder approach to address the research questions, including cooperation with Guy Carpenter & Company, a reinsurance intermediary and leader in the agricultural insurance sector, as well as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). Further, this research will cooperate with the reinsurance company, Scor, and Airbus Defense and Space. It is anticipated that this research will help to strengthen Canada's position as a global leader in the agricultural sector, facilitating innovative research and development, improved higher education, and improved agricultural insurance, thereby bringing greater economic prosperity for Canadians. This work should be useful for farmers, insurers, reinsurers, producer organizations, and government, in Canada and throughout the world, as well as other researchers.