Responses of boreal trees to global change: acclimate, migrate or disappear?

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has been increasing since the Industrial Revolution and will continue to increase in the foreseeable future. Rising CO2 affects the physiology, growth and distribution of plants. Studies suggest that the rising CO2 induced climate change will be most prominent in the boreal region. The boreal forest is the largest terrestrial ecosystem on the earth. Its ecophysiological activities can have a profound impact on the environmental conditions of the earth. The ecophysiological processes are in turn controlled by climate and soil conditions. While the impact of climate variables and some soil factors are studied relatively extensively, it is still not clear how soil temperature may interact with other factors to influence the responses of boreal trees to climate change. Soil temperature is very variable in the boreal region. Thus understanding its potential effects is critical for a better understanding of how the boreal forest may respond to climate change. This research will examine how soil temperature will interact with other environmental factors to influence the ecophysiological activities and growth of important boreal tree species under the projected future atmospheric CO2 concentration. Computer models will be developed for incorporating soil conditions into ecological models. There are several types of responses to climate change: migrate to other areas, make physiological and growth adjustment to fit the new conditions, continue to grow at the current location but with a lower performance or become extinct. This research will provide insights on the relative likelihood of these responses and advance the science of boreal tree ecophysiology. The boreal forest is a critical resource supporting the forest industry and tourism in Canada. The improved understanding of and predicting power for potential responses of boreal trees to climate change will provide policy makers and forest managers with information to develop more suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies.