Bioenergetic approaches for understanding and forecasting ecological and epidemiological impacts of climate change

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Climate change, land use change, and other large-scale disturbances are altering ecosystems globally at an accelerating rate. Ecological forecast models that can outline the scope, timeline and manner of future impacts are needed to allow for proactive management strategies, for example, in the conservation of endangered species and the control of diseases. However, unlike the climate sciences, where mechanistic models are routinely used to predict climate changes, ecology does not yet offer a comprehensive framework for predicting ecosystem response to these changes. This proposal integrates physiological, ecological and epidemiological principles to develop, test, and apply mechanistic models for understanding and forecasting climate change impacts in two key areas of conservation and public/wildlife health.