Observationally-constrained climate projections following the Paris Agreement

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The Paris Agreement, which recently came into force, commits signatories to ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. Since carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas, and since a certain total amount of carbon dioxide emissions gives the same amount of warming irrespective of whether it is emitted all at once or over a long period, a warming threshold of 1.5°C can be associated with a particular total amount of carbon dioxide emissions, or carbon budget. Knowing the maximum amount of carbon dioxide which can be emitted while having a good chance of limiting global mean temperature to below the 1.5°C and 2.0°C thresholds is key to planning climate mitigation strategies and fulfilling the commitments made in the Paris Agreement.