Vulnerability and resiliency of continuous permafrost in a changing climate: Thresholds of non-recoverable change.

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Despite the well-documented warming trend in Arctic climate and a corresponding increase in permafrost temperatures there remains tremendous uncertainty about the response of continuous permafrost systems to climate change. Several model-based studies suggest widespread terrain instability, melting and disappearance of permafrost, while recent field-based studies indicate that permafrost systems may be more resilient than modelling scenarios imply. Generalizations concerning permafrost response to climate change can result in errors in estimates of carbon flux, landscape change and infrastructure problems. There is an urgent need for empirical observation of heat and moisture fluxes for the active layer and the upper part of permafrost to better constrain modeling activities.