Statistical Spectrum Estimation and Solar Gravity Modes

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We propose to continue studying the connection between normal modes of the Sun, propagation in space plasmas, and the effects of these modes on Earth. Our 1995 discovery of these modes has snowballed from a curiosity in scientific data, to dropped calls on cellular phone systems, and most recently, to the identification of a solar gravity mode (g-mode) in high-energy electrons in Earth's magnetosphere. This, combined with theory and simulations, is gradually changing peoples' views of how propagation in space plasmas works and, with it, views of solar-terrestrial coupling. A major task of the next few years will be to continue the basic scientific research including refinements in our statistical characterization of the modes, their propagation properties, and more intensive study of the mechanisms that couple them into various terrestrial systems. For example, we know that these modes are responsible for a large fraction of the dropped calls in cellular phone systems, but do not know the atmospheric or ionospheric physics responsible. I anticipate that the work on g-modes will lead to eventual improvements in space weather forecasts with applications ranging from geological prospecting, to air traffic control, to stability of power grids.Simultaneously, I plan to continue refining the statistical and analytic tools that make such transformative research possible. The scientific and engineering discoveries have only been possible because of better data analysis methods, in particular the multitaper method of estimating spectra and coherences.Training students in these statistical methods will help spread these new tools into Canadian industry, where they can be expected to make improvements to a wide range of applications which depend upon the reliability of time series data. These areas are as diverse as surgical scheduling, financial forecasting, reducing corrosion in oil pipelines, and better communication in the Arctic.