Seismic Risk Analysis of Critical Engineering Structures

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Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters. Since several destructive earthquakes have occurred in recent decades, seismic risk analysis for critical engineering structures has become one of the most important and popular topics in earthquake engineering. Nuclear energy industries world-wide are launching an unprecedented and extensive re-evaluation of seismic hazards and risk to nuclear power plant (NPP) systems. Furthermore, nuclear energy regulators and utilities are taking a critical look at the existing methods of estimating seismic risk of NPPs. A number of shortcomings have been recognized in the existing methods of seismic risk analysis. The objective of this research is to develop a modern probabilistic framework of seismic risk analysis. This would include development of a new design spectrum consistent with vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, through the response analysis of primary and secondary structures, to the vector-valued seismic fragility and risk analyses of critical engineering structural systems. The proposed research will study the spectral shape of a newly developed vector-valued uniform hazard spectrum (VUHS) to further improve on its generation, and to calibrate the seismic hazard level of the VUHS so that it can be implemented in seismic design codes. Comprehensive random field models to model spatially varying soil properties and approaches to synthesize spatially varying ground motions will be developed for soil-structure interaction analysis. The proposed research will develop vector-valued seismic fragility analysis and vector-valued seismic risk analysis, in terms of vectors of key ground motion parameters, to provide more rigorous and accurate seismic risk estimations of critical engineering structures. This framework based on vector-valued analysis will substantially improve seismic design codes. The methodologies developed can be used to design new and to assess existing critical engineering structures to comply with modern standards for seismic safety.