The Development of Applied Real Options Approaches for the Valuation of Mining Projects

矿业项目估值应用实物期权方法的发展

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-06627
• 负责人: Lawryshyn, Yuri
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636547
• 关键词: Development; Applied; Real; Options; Approaches

Real option analysis (ROA) is recognized as a superior method to quantify the value of real-world investment opportunities where managerial flexibility can influence their worth, as compared to standard discounted cash-flow methods typically used in industry. A comprehensive ROA of an oil, gas or mineral mining project can improve the allocation of capital and managerial decision making and the methodology is currently used, to some degree, in the commodity extraction sectors. However, realistic models that try to account for a number of risk factors can be mathematically complex, and in situations where many future outcomes are possible, many layers of analysis may be required. Typically, managers are usually unable to understand the models and dismiss results that seem unintuitive to them. A recent empirical study showed that roughly 35% more value can be extracted from mining operations if managers had made better timing and capacity decisions.

真实的期权分析（罗阿）被认为是一种上级方法来量化现实世界的投资机会的价值，管理的灵活性可以影响他们的价值，相比标准的贴现现金流方法通常用于行业。石油、天然气或矿产开采项目的全面罗阿可以改善资本分配和管理决策，目前在某种程度上，该方法用于商品开采部门。然而，试图考虑许多风险因素的现实模型在数学上可能很复杂，并且在许多未来结果可能的情况下，可能需要许多层分析。通常情况下，管理人员通常无法理解模型，并忽略对他们来说似乎不直观的结果。最近的一项实证研究表明，如果管理人员能够做出更好的时机和能力决策，那么可以从采矿业务中提取大约35%的价值。