Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the Cascadia and Chilean Subduction Zones

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The objective of the proposed research program is to improve our assessments of earthquake hazards in both the Cascadia and Chilean subduction zones using a variety of new datasets combined with improved earth-imaging methodologies. Specifically, we will map select portions of the subduction zones in both Chile and Cascadia using data from new, dense seismic arrays. A variety of earth modelling techniques will be utilised, including seismic tomography and receiver function analysis. These will be integrated with recently improved Bayesian inversion methodologies. We will use recordings of four recent large subduction earthquakes in Chile, the 2010 (Mw 8.8) Maule earthquake, the 2014 (Mw 8.2) Iquique earthquake, the 2015 (Mw*8.3) Illapel earthquake, and the 2016 (Mw 7.6) Quell´on earthquake, to examine variations in ground shaking with age of the subducting plate and style of subduction along the Chilean margin and will compare observed shaking levels (corrected for local site effects) with those used in national building codes in both Chile and Canada. Later stages of our research will focus on forecasting aftershocks from subduction earthquakes in Cascadia using observations from Chile where many more events occur (observations will include aftershock statistics, hypocentral locations, and faulting mechanisms and rupture area). The ultimate objective of our research is to help minimise the impact of future earthquakes in Canada and Chile. The anticipated outcomes and benefits of our research includes safer communities, more robust infrastructure, improved information for decision-making, and reduced losses from earthquakes that will occur in the future.