Predictive horse supply models to forecast Thoroughbred horse supply requirements**

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Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) offers racing, dining and entertainment experiences to their patrons and is a world-leader in horseracing. WEG contributes significantly to the Canadian economy and provides employment opportunities in both the Rexdale area and beyond. The thoroughbred horse industry in Ontario has recently undergone significant funding changes that have negatively affected growth rates within the industry. In 2012, the Ontario government announced the cancellation of the "Slots at Racetracks Program" (SARP) which significantly reduced the number of horses being bred and subsequently placed into Ontario based racing events. This reduction has had a negative impact on the numerous businesses that depend on a healthy supply of thoroughbred horses to sustain the viability of their enterprises. Some of the impacted stakeholders include: breeders, veterinarians, farriers, feed producers, distributors, equine transportation services, etc. The objectives of this research include: 1) developing a statistical algorithm to estimate future horse supply inclusive of multiple data sources; 2) conducting extensive statistical testing to ensure the accuracy of the model; 3) developing a software-based solution that involves the incorporation of the newly established model and a connection to WEG's data pipeline. Developing a predictive horse supply model will go a long way in ensuring Woodbine can allocate resources strategically in order optimize the net benefits that running a racetrack can provide to those individuals that depend on the thoroughbred industry as a means of making a living and for those organizations that indirectly support horse racing. The short-term benefit of understanding future thoroughbred horse supply levels will allow the thoroughbred equine industry to reach an equilibrium that will ensure its future stability. The long-term benefit of being able to better understand Ontario's thoroughbred horse supply will be reflected in a stronger equine sector and an enhanced overall economy within the province of Ontario.