Predictive horse supply models to forecast Thoroughbred horse supply requirements**

伍德宾娱乐集团(WEG)为他们的赞助人提供赛车、餐饮和娱乐体验，是赛马领域的世界领先者。WEG为加拿大经济做出了重大贡献，并在雷克斯代尔地区和其他地区提供了就业机会。安大略省的纯种马产业最近经历了重大的资金变化，对该行业的增长率产生了负面影响。2012年，安大略省政府宣布取消“赛马场老虎机计划”(SARP)，该计划显著减少了马匹的繁育数量，并随后被安排在安大略省的赛马赛事中。这一削减对依赖健康的纯种马供应以维持其企业生存能力的许多企业产生了负面影响。一些受影响的利益相关者包括：饲养员、兽医、饲养员、饲料生产商、经销商、马匹运输服务等。本研究的目标包括：1)开发一种统计算法来估计未来的马匹供应量，包括多个数据来源；2)进行广泛的统计测试以确保模型的准确性；3)开发一个基于软件的解决方案，涉及纳入新建立的模型并连接到WEG的数据管道。开发可预测的马匹供应模型将大大有助于确保Woodbine能够战略性地分配资源，以优化运营赛马场可以为那些依赖纯种马行业作为谋生手段的个人和那些间接支持赛马的组织提供的净收益。了解未来纯种马供应水平的短期好处将使纯种马行业达到平衡，确保其未来的稳定。能够更好地了解安大略省纯种马供应的长期好处将反映在安大略省更强大的马匹行业和增强的整体经济中。

Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) offers racing, dining and entertainment experiences to their patrons and is a world-leader in horseracing. WEG contributes significantly to the Canadian economy and provides employment opportunities in both the Rexdale area and beyond. The thoroughbred horse industry in Ontario has recently undergone significant funding changes that have negatively affected growth rates within the industry. In 2012, the Ontario government announced the cancellation of the "Slots at Racetracks Program" (SARP) which significantly reduced the number of horses being bred and subsequently placed into Ontario based racing events. This reduction has had a negative impact on the numerous businesses that depend on a healthy supply of thoroughbred horses to sustain the viability of their enterprises. Some of the impacted stakeholders include: breeders, veterinarians, farriers, feed producers, distributors, equine transportation services, etc. The objectives of this research include: 1) developing a statistical algorithm to estimate future horse supply inclusive of multiple data sources; 2) conducting extensive statistical testing to ensure the accuracy of the model; 3) developing a software-based solution that involves the incorporation of the newly established model and a connection to WEG's data pipeline. Developing a predictive horse supply model will go a long way in ensuring Woodbine can allocate resources strategically in order optimize the net benefits that running a racetrack can provide to those individuals that depend on the thoroughbred industry as a means of making a living and for those organizations that indirectly support horse racing. The short-term benefit of understanding future thoroughbred horse supply levels will allow the thoroughbred equine industry to reach an equilibrium that will ensure its future stability. The long-term benefit of being able to better understand Ontario's thoroughbred horse supply will be reflected in a stronger equine sector and an enhanced overall economy within the province of Ontario.