Integrating spatial and temporal processes to understand the effects of multiple environmental stressors on ecosystems

整合空间和时间过程以了解多种环境压力源对生态系统的影响

• 批准号: 435400-2013
• 负责人: Sharma, Sapna
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: York University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=664901
• 关键词: Integrating; spatial; temporal; processes; understand

Human-induced environmental stressors, such as global climate change, introduction of non-indigenous species, and alterations in land use, water quality and habitat, are among the leading drivers of ecosystem change and loss of biodiversity. My goal is to understand the response of freshwater systems to environmental stressors. Few studies predict the effects of multiple interacting environmental stressors on species, and fewer studies have been conducted at the community level. We will develop multivariate statistical models to determine the effects of multiple human-induced environmental stressors on warmwater, coolwater, and coldwater fish communities at the extents of their ranges in Ontario and Wisconsin. We will compare extremes in range expansion and contraction, monitoring the northward dispersal of warmwater fish, and the extirpation of coldwater fish in the south. These models will allow for an assessment of how environmental variability will affect freshwater fish communities under different climate change, invasive species, and land-use scenarios. Subsequently, we will determine how multiple environmental stressors exert their influence across multiple spatial scales. We will employ spatial statistical methods to develop models identifying biotic and abiotic determinants influencing species distributions at local, regional, continental, and global spatial scales. We will apply scenarios of environmental change to predict how multiple environmental stressors impact the extirpation of native fish communities at a range of spatial scales. Finally, using ice-cover records for over 75 lakes across the Northern Hemisphere spanning up to 550 years, we will integrate temporal processes at short-, medium-, and long-time scales to differentiate the role of natural oscillatory dynamics and anthropogenically induced climatic change in an effort to determine how patterns of ice phenology have changed across space and time. Therefore, we propose to improve our understanding of the response of aquatic ecosystems to threats on water quality and biodiversity in Canadian lakes within a global context.**********

人类引起的环境压力，如全球气候变化、引进非本地物种以及土地使用、水质和生境的改变，是生态系统变化和生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素。我的目标是了解淡水系统对环境压力的反应。很少有研究预测多种相互作用的环境压力对物种的影响，更少的研究已经在社区一级进行。我们将开发多变量统计模型，以确定多个人为引起的环境压力对温水，冷水和冷水鱼类群落在其范围内的程度在安大略和威斯康星州的影响。 我们将比较范围扩张和收缩的极端情况，监测暖水鱼类向北的扩散，以及南方冷水鱼类的灭绝。 这些模型将有助于评估在不同的气候变化、入侵物种和土地使用情景下，环境变异性将如何影响淡水鱼类群落。随后，我们将确定多种环境压力如何在多个空间尺度上发挥其影响。 我们将采用空间统计方法来开发模型，以确定生物和非生物的决定因素影响物种分布在地方，区域，大陆和全球空间尺度。我们将应用环境变化的情景来预测多种环境压力如何影响本地鱼类群落在一系列空间尺度上的灭绝。最后，使用跨越长达550年的北方半球超过75个湖泊的冰盖记录，我们将在短、中、长时间尺度上整合时间过程，以区分自然振荡动力学和气候变化引起的气候变化的作用，以确定冰物候模式如何在空间和时间上发生变化。 因此，我们建议在全球范围内提高我们对加拿大湖泊水质和生物多样性威胁的水生生态系统响应的理解。