Elucidating soil carbon dynamics for climate change adaptation and mitigation tradeoff analysis at a landscape scale

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A key strategy to improve the resiliency of agricultural production and also reduce the impact of agriculture on climate change (i.e. adaptation and mitigation) is the adoption of beneficial management practices (BMPs) that increase soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, the magnitude of this potential is unclear and recent work indicates SOC losses due to increasing temperatures may be higher than previously expected. To resolve this uncertainty a number of questions need to be addressed at multiple spatial and temporal scales. At the field scale, questions remain about the dynamics of SOC in relation to various environmental (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and management factors (e.g. tillage, land use change). Factors affecting rates of SOC loss are poorly understood as is the rate that SOC can be regained or at what concentration gains will level off. At the landscape scale it is unclear how effectively process-models predict long-term changes in SOC given BMP configurations and land-use change and whether new modeling approaches can improve the accuracy of simulations. ******The overarching long-term goal of my research program is to develop strategies that simultaneously maximize SOC retention within agricultural landscapes while minimizing GHG emissions. Our short-term program is focused primarily on understanding the mechanisms that control SOC dynamics and improving process models to test hypotheses at the landscape scale. Our approach entails scaling plot level analyses to the landscape and projecting outcomes over time using geographical information systems, remote sensing and ecosystem process models. The overarching objective of our five-year research program will address the following question: Does the rate, quantity and duration of SOC sequestration under perennial vegetation BMPs enable the optimization for both agricultural climate change adaptation and mitigation objectives at the landscape scale.******My lab's five-year research program has three specific objectives: ***(1.) Quantify the rate, amount and duration of SOC sequestration and losses for BMPs and land use change; ***(2.) Elucidate the mechanisms that control SOC dynamics for these land management options; and ***(3.) Parameterize, validate and model BMPs and land use change options at the landscape scale given expected climate projections to test for adaption and mitigation synergies.******My research program will increase the understanding of the mechanisms that control SOC sequestration to develop regionally appropriate models and help improve global ones. This research will greatly enhance Canadian and global efforts to meet commitments to mitigate climate change while at the same time improve the capacity to produce food.