NSERC / Hydro-Quebec Industrial Research Chair in short-term forecasting of precipitation: Phase II

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Hydro-Quebec is a leading utility company in North America and hydro-electric power generation and distribution is the most significant aspect of her operation. The efficient generation and distribution of hydro-electric power depends on accurate forecast of inflows in reservoirs and drainage basins, which in turn is affected significantly by the quality of the forecast of the type and amount of precipitation. During the first Phase of the Industrial Research Chair program, various tools have been developed to improve the forecast of when, where, how much, and what type of precipitation would occur over a lead time of one to two days. During Phase II, this forecast lead time will be increased to one week which would be highly beneficial for**capacity management of hydroelectric power.**The objective of the research program for the NSERC/Hydro-Quebec Chair in Phase II is to improve precipitation forecasts up to 7 days by building on the tools and results obtained during Phase I. The key focal point will be to develop a unified aerosol-microphysics multi-moment scheme across model resolutions, and to improve the representation of convection in the Canadian computer weather prediction model covering the whole globe. Another focus is to evaluate the quantitative precipitation and hydrological forecast over global and regional scales as a result of the better representation of convective and cloud and precipitation processes. It is anticipated that the research program would improve the prediction of precipitation, resulting in significant economic benefits in capacity management of hydroelectric power. The proposed program will also maintain a stimulating environment for collaborative research between McGill trainees, Hydro-Quebec scientists, and Environment Canada researchers.