Macroweather temperature forecasts

宏观天气温度预报

• 批准号: 538567-2019
• 负责人: Lovejoy, Shaun
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Engage Grants Program
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=680862
• 关键词: Macroweather; temperature; forecasts

Our lab has developed a new system for making monthly, seasonal and annual temperature and other forecasts: the STOChastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). Whereas conventional forecast systems are based on the state of the entire atmosphere and ocean at the moment of the forecast, StocSIPS instead exploits the atmosphere and ocean's long memory by using long series of past data that capture both the memory as well as (implicitly) many of the spatial dependencies (e.g. teleconnections). Since the forecast depends on the real world climate, for periods of months and longer, it is more accurate that alternatives that depend on imperfect model climates. StocSIPS is ideally suited for exploiting local - even hyper local - data. This project thus meshes perfectly with the requirements of our partner MétéoGlobale that already provides its client with various weather scale (several days or less) products and adapts them to their particular concerns. These include highly local - especially municipal scale - products that are pertinent to winter viability, in particular that help with predicting near term road conditions with implications for snow removal. Other customers benefit from dynamic marketing products that use similar information for inventory planning. At the moment, the services are restricted to very short time scales, less than one week. The specific problem that will be addressed is to provide much longer term forecasts especially for monthly and seasonal averages. MétéoGlobale is an early stage company with clients in Canada. By expanding features in its product lines, MétéoGlobale can continue with its growth not only in Canada but abroad as well. These potential product improvements can be implemented within a few years of validation. Finally having more accurate and reliably forecasts supplied to MétéoGlobale's municipal clients will directly benefit Canadians, especially in the winter months.

我们的实验室开发了一种新的系统，用于进行月、季、年气温和其他预报：随机季节和年际预报系统(StocSIPS)。传统的预报系统基于预报时整个大气和海洋的状态，而StocSIPS则利用大气和海洋的长期记忆，利用过去的一长串数据，既捕捉记忆，又(隐含地)捕捉许多空间相关性(例如遥相关)。由于预测取决于现实世界的气候，在几个月或更长的时间内，它比依赖于不完美的模型气候的替代方案更准确。StocSIPS非常适合利用本地--甚至超本地--数据。因此，该项目完全符合我们的合作伙伴MétéoGlobale的要求，该公司已经为其客户提供了各种天气尺度(几天或更短时间)的产品，并根据客户的具体需求进行调整。这些产品包括与冬季生存能力相关的高度地方性产品，特别是与冬季可行性相关的市政规模产品，特别是有助于预测近期道路状况并影响除雪的产品。其他客户受益于使用类似信息进行库存计划的动态营销产品。目前，这些服务被限制在非常短的时间范围内，不到一周。将解决的具体问题是提供更长期的预测，特别是月度和季节性平均预测。MétéoGlobale是一家在加拿大拥有客户的初创公司。通过扩大产品线的功能，MétéoGlobale不仅可以在加拿大继续增长，还可以在海外继续增长。这些潜在的产品改进可以在验证的几年内实施。最后，向MétéoGlobale的市政客户提供更准确、更可靠的预测将直接使加拿大人受益，特别是在冬季。