Sizing the Y2Q Problem

量子计算机正在快速发展，早期型号已经上市。一旦成熟，除了许多有益的应用程序之外，该技术还将使恶意用户和组织能够轻松地绕过当今最常用和最可信的保护机密信息的方法。这种迫在眉睫的威胁（量子攻击）的本质，以及针对它的保护形式（量子抵抗）都很好地理解，并在计算机科学和工程文献中有很好的记录。然而，在对这种威胁的理论理解与需要花费时间和金钱来防范这种威胁的企业的实际影响之间存在着差距。根据组织的需要及其加密管理方法，对数字信息安全系统的修改可以相对简单、快速和廉价，也可以非常复杂、冗长和昂贵。向抗量子态的转变也不例外。然而，对这种全行业转型的审查和成本分析尚未出现在学术文献中。这种转变被称为“Y2Q”，即量子年。千年虫是个问题，就像千年虫一样。本研究的目的是为信息通信产业（ICT）面临的这一迫在眉睫的威胁提供一个严谨的学术审查。特别地，本研究将回答以下两个问题；目前标准化的加密方案所保护的行业规模有多大，即量子计算机所威胁的行业规模有多大；并且，从目前软件和硬件中易受量子攻击的加密措施到目前正在开发的未来抗量子技术的整个行业技术转型的成本是多少？这项研究的成果将使信息通信技术界的决策者在规划这一转变时能够做出更好和明智的决策。

Quantum computers are being developed at a rapid pace, with early models already on the market. Once mature, in addition to many beneficial applications, this technology will enable malicious users and organizations to easily circumvent some of today's most commonly-used and trusted means of securing confidential information. The nature of both this impending threat (quantum attacks), and the form of protection against it (quantum resistance) are well understood and are well documented in the computer science and engineering literature. There is, however, a gap between theoretical understanding of the threat, and the practical implications for businesses that will need to spend time and money protecting against it. Depending on the needs of an organization and its approach to cryptography management, modifications to digital information security systems can range from relatively straightforward, quick and inexpensive, to massively complex, drawn out and very costly. The transition to a quantum-resistant state is no exception. However, the examination and costing analysis of this industry-wide transition is not yet present in the academic literature. This transition has been dubbed as `Y2Q', years to quantum. Y2Q ia a problem, much like Y2K was a problem. The aim of this research is to provide an academically rigorous examination of this impending threat to the Information and Communication Industry (ICT). In particular, this research will answer the following two questions; What is the size of the industry that the currently standardized cryptographic schemes are protecting, i.e., what is the size of the industry that the quantum computers are threatening; And, what is the cost of this industry-wide technology transition from currently quantum-vulnerable cryptographic measures in software and hardware to the future quantum-resistant technologies that are currently being developed. The output of this research will enable the decision makers in the ICT community to make better and informed decisions when planning for this switch.