Exposition et adaptation aux incendies forestiers dans la taïga canadienne

加拿大针叶林的建筑物和群落经常遭受严重的火灾。最近的麦克默里堡火灾（2016年5月）可能是加拿大历史上最昂贵的自然灾害。此外，随着经济发展和全球变暖，我们预计火灾、人和基础设施之间的相互作用将更加频繁。社区、魁北克水电公司、马尼托巴水电公司和针叶林中具有风险价值的其他行业可以通过减少火灾暴露和减少预期火灾影响来保护自己，但这些措施不能系统地部署到所有基础设施中。该项目的总体目标是使用一个模型，模拟大量森林火灾的蔓延，以绘制整个拉格兰德水电站地区火灾风险的高分辨率变化图。然后，使用成本效益分析，我们将量化各种缓解措施对风险最大和战略性VAR的相关性。在北方魁北克发展起来的专门知识将随后应用于北方马尼托巴的类似情况。制定的方法将指导工业伙伴（魁北克水电公司、马尼托巴水电公司）和其他北方社区和管理人员的火灾管理政策和决定。该项目还将有助于培训能够在气候变化的背景下评估短期和长期火灾风险的HQP。

Infrastructures and communities of the Canadian taiga are exposed to very severe and frequent fires. The recent Fort McMurray fire (May 2016) could be the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. Moreover, with economic development and global warming, we expect more frequent interactions between fire, people and infrastructures. Communities, Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro and other industries with value at risk (VAR) in the taiga can protect themselves by attenuating exposure to fires and attenuating anticipated fire impacts, but these measures can not be deployed systematicaly for all infrastructures. The general objective of this project is to use a model that simulate the propagation of a very large number of forest fires in order to map the variability of the fire risk with very high resolution across the territory of the La Grande hydroelectric complex. Then, using a cost-benefit analysis, we will quantify the relevance of various mitigation measures for the most exposed and strategic VARs. The expertise developed in northern Quebec will subsequently be applied to the similar context of northern Manitoba. The approaches developed will guide fire management policies and decisions by the industrial partners (Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro) and other northern communities and managers. This project will also contribute to the training of HQP able to assess the fire risk at short and long terms in the context of climate change.