Exposition et adaptation aux incendies forestiers dans la taïga canadienne

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Infrastructures and communities of the Canadian taiga are exposed to very severe and frequent fires. The recent Fort McMurray fire (May 2016) could be the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. Moreover, with economic development and global warming, we expect more frequent interactions between fire, people and infrastructures. Communities, Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro and other industries with value at risk (VAR) in the taiga can protect themselves by attenuating exposure to fires and attenuating anticipated fire impacts, but these measures can not be deployed systematicaly for all infrastructures. The general objective of this project is to use a model that simulate the propagation of a very large number of forest fires in order to map the variability of the fire risk with very high resolution across the territory of the La Grande hydroelectric complex. Then, using a cost-benefit analysis, we will quantify the relevance of various mitigation measures for the most exposed and strategic VARs. The expertise developed in northern Quebec will subsequently be applied to the similar context of northern Manitoba. The approaches developed will guide fire management policies and decisions by the industrial partners (Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro) and other northern communities and managers. This project will also contribute to the training of HQP able to assess the fire risk at short and long terms in the context of climate change.