Assessing biological invasion risk under climate change scenarios in the Great Lakes Basin

五大湖流域维持着价值70亿美元的渔业，而渔业正日益受到气候变化和水生入侵物种的威胁。迫切需要准确的风险评估，以帮助确定和优先考虑对流域造成最大生态威胁的入侵物种。事实上，《联邦渔业法》和2012年《五大湖水质协定》中新的水生入侵物种条款要求加拿大根据对既有入侵者和高风险入侵者的生态系统影响以及气候变化对入侵者的潜在影响的科学评估来管理这些威胁。当前和未来的入侵者带来的风险正在被更高的水温所改变，这可能会改变入侵者和本地物种的生长性能、摄食效率和竞争性相互作用，对食物网产生潜在的负面影响，可能导致不健康的生态系统。然而，以前在五大湖进行的风险评估没有考虑入侵威胁如何受到气候变化的影响。为了解决这一差距，我们将使用一种创新的实验方法，测试入侵鱼类相对于本地鱼类对更广泛的生态社区的基线影响的影响。我们将在五大湖不同变暖情景下预测的水温中进行这些测试。测试的物种将包括对五大湖构成直接入侵威胁的欧亚丁鱼，以及金鱼（金鱼、普鲁士鲤鱼、鲫鱼），这是一组被忽视的高度入侵鱼类，在北美数量不断增加。气候变暖情景也将纳入人口和水动力模型，以评估亚洲鲤鱼（大头鱼、黑鲤鱼、草鱼和银鱼）在五大湖支流产卵、生存和越冬的能力。此外，我们亦会修订先前就数百种作食物或宠物出售的淡水鱼所进行的风险评估。该项目将通过与加拿大渔业和海洋部的合作伙伴关系，将联合收割机的科学和管理专门知识结合起来。

The Great Lakes basin supports a $7 billion fishery that is increasingly threatened by climate change andaquatic invasive species. Accurate risk assessments are urgently needed to help identify and prioritize invasivespecies that pose the greatest ecological threats to the basin. Indeed, the new aquatic invasive speciesprovisions in the federal Fisheries Act and the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement commits Canada tomanage these threats based on scientific assessments of the ecosystem impacts of both established andhigh-risk invaders, and the potential influence of climate change on invaders. Risks posed by current andfuture invaders are being transformed by higher water temperatures that can alter the growth performance,feeding efficiency and competitive interactions of invaders and native species, with potentially negativeconsequences for food webs that can result in unhealthy ecosystems. However, previous risk assessments in the Great Lakes have not considered how invasion threats are influenced by climate change. To address this gap, we will use an innovative experimental approach that tests the impact of invasive fishes relative to the baseline impacts of native fishes on the broader ecological community. We will conduct these tests in water temperatures projected under different warming scenarios for the Great Lakes. Species tested will include Eurasian Tench, which is an immediate invasion threat to the Great Lakes, and goldfishes (Goldfish, Prussian Carp, Crucian Carp), which are an overlooked group of highly invasive fishes that are increasing in abundance in North America. Climate-warming scenarios will also be incorporated into demographic and hydrodynamic models to assess the ability of Asian (Bighead, Black, Grass and Silver) carps to spawn, survive and overwinter in Great Lakes tributaries. In addition, we will revise risk assessments previously conducted for several hundred freshwater fish species sold as food or pets. This project will combine scientific and management expertise through a collaborative partnership with Fisheries and Oceans Canada.