Assessing biological invasion risk under climate change scenarios in the Great Lakes Basin

五大湖流域支持着价值70亿美元的渔业，该渔业日益受到气候变化和水生入侵物种的威胁。迫切需要进行准确的风险评估，以帮助确定对流域构成最大生态威胁的入侵物种并确定它们的优先次序。事实上，联邦渔业法和2012年五大湖水质协议中新的水生入侵物种条款要求加拿大根据对已确定的和高风险入侵者的生态系统影响以及气候变化对入侵者的潜在影响的科学评估来管理这些威胁。更高的水温正在改变当前和未来入侵者带来的风险，这可能会改变入侵者和本地物种的生长性能、摄食效率和竞争性相互作用，并可能对食物网产生负面影响，从而导致不健康的生态系统。然而，以前对五大湖的风险评估没有考虑气候变化对入侵威胁的影响。为了解决这一差距，我们将使用一种创新的实验方法，测试入侵鱼类相对于本地鱼类对更广泛生态群落的基线影响的影响。我们将在五大湖不同变暖情景下预测的水温下进行这些测试。测试的物种将包括对五大湖构成直接入侵威胁的欧亚坦奇，以及金鱼(金鱼、普鲁士鲤鱼、鲫鱼)，金鱼是一类被忽视的高度入侵鱼类，在北美的数量正在增加。气候变暖情景还将纳入人口统计和水动力学模型，以评估亚洲鲤鱼在五大湖支流产卵、存活和越冬的能力。此外，我们会修订先前对数百种淡水鱼出售作食用或宠物用途的风险评估。该项目将通过与加拿大渔业和海洋合作伙伴关系，将科学和管理方面的专门知识结合起来。

The Great Lakes basin supports a $7 billion fishery that is increasingly threatened by climate change andaquatic invasive species. Accurate risk assessments are urgently needed to help identify and prioritize invasivespecies that pose the greatest ecological threats to the basin. Indeed, the new aquatic invasive speciesprovisions in the federal Fisheries Act and the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement commits Canada tomanage these threats based on scientific assessments of the ecosystem impacts of both established andhigh-risk invaders, and the potential influence of climate change on invaders. Risks posed by current andfuture invaders are being transformed by higher water temperatures that can alter the growth performance,feeding efficiency and competitive interactions of invaders and native species, with potentially negativeconsequences for food webs that can result in unhealthy ecosystems. However, previous risk assessments in the Great Lakes have not considered how invasion threats are influenced by climate change. To address this gap, we will use an innovative experimental approach that tests the impact of invasive fishes relative to the baseline impacts of native fishes on the broader ecological community. We will conduct these tests in water temperatures projected under different warming scenarios for the Great Lakes. Species tested will include Eurasian Tench, which is an immediate invasion threat to the Great Lakes, and goldfishes (Goldfish, Prussian Carp, Crucian Carp), which are an overlooked group of highly invasive fishes that are increasing in abundance in North America. Climate-warming scenarios will also be incorporated into demographic and hydrodynamic models to assess the ability of Asian (Bighead, Black, Grass and Silver) carps to spawn, survive and overwinter in Great Lakes tributaries. In addition, we will revise risk assessments previously conducted for several hundred freshwater fish species sold as food or pets. This project will combine scientific and management expertise through a collaborative partnership with Fisheries and Oceans Canada.