Climate and ocean dynamics informing resource management and adaptation policy

气候和海洋动力学为资源管理和适应政策提供信息

• 批准号: 521427-2018
• 负责人: Kienast, Markus
• 金额: $ 14.56万
• 依托单位: Dalhousie University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Strategic Projects - Group
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=697623
• 关键词: Climate; ocean; dynamics; informing; resource

The abundance, distribution, and size of fish species are intrinsically linked to changing ocean conditions such as water temperatures and nutrient regimes. They are also profoundly affected by human activities, most prominently fisheries exploitation. While historical accounts of the latter are taken into account in fisheries management, very little is known about the historical link between ocean environmental change and marine ecosystems in general, and fish communities in particular. This project will generate high resolution and quantitative reconstructions of ocean dynamics vis-à-vis fish abundances in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem during the last 2,000 years, a time span covering both the pre-Colonial and post- European settlement world. Records of changing ocean environmental conditions derived from sedimentary, coral and mollusk records will be combined with records of variations in fish abundance, size, and community structure from both fish microfossils (ichthyoliths) preserved in the sedimentary record and from archaeological and historical data. These data sets will be compared with realistic coupled climate biogeochemistry-ecosystem-fishing hindcast models. This highly innovative approach of combining diverse time series will, for the first time, provide reference points on a shifting baseline for climate change adaptation policy and ecosystem management and will directly inform integrative models to improve predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected climate scenarios. Our results will be communicated to decision makers, such as the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), and the public through outreach, education, and advocacy efforts in collaboration with our end-users, including DFO and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Canada. Our results will also be immediately applicable to fisheries and oceans management processes, including a move towards ecosystem-based fisheries management and broad scale spatial protections.

鱼类的丰度、分布和大小与不断变化的海洋条件（如水温和营养状况）有着内在的联系。它们还受到人类活动的深刻影响，最突出的是渔业开发。虽然在渔业管理中考虑到了后者的历史记录，但人们对海洋环境变化与一般海洋生态系统、特别是鱼类群落之间的历史联系知之甚少。该项目将对过去2 000年中西北大西洋生态系统中海洋动态与鱼类丰度的关系进行高分辨率和定量重建，这一时间跨度涵盖了殖民地时代之前和欧洲殖民地时代之后的世界。来自沉积物、珊瑚和软体动物记录的海洋环境条件变化记录将与来自沉积物记录中保存的鱼类微化石（鱼化石）和考古及历史数据的鱼类丰度、大小和群落结构变化记录相结合。这些数据集将与现实的气候-地球化学-生态系统-捕捞后报耦合模型进行比较。这种将不同时间序列结合起来的高度创新的方法将首次为气候变化适应政策和生态系统管理提供不断变化的基准参考点，并将直接为综合模型提供信息，以提高政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）预测气候情景下生态系统预测的预测能力。我们的研究结果将传达给决策者，如渔业和海洋部（DFO），并通过与我们的最终用户（包括DFO和世界野生动物基金会（WWF）加拿大）合作的外联，教育和宣传工作向公众传达。我们的研究结果也将立即适用于渔业和海洋管理过程，包括转向基于生态系统的渔业管理和大规模的空间保护。