Integrated water management modelling of Manitoba's river-reservoir system under changing climate

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It is proposed to develop an Integrated Water Management (IWM) model to quantify adverse impacts of climate change and human decisions on the water supply and hydroelectric generating industry in the Nelson River basin and evaluate mitigation and adaptation plans. The Nelson River traverses mid- to high-latitude regions and is vulnerable to climate change. This poses a challenge to the operations of Manitoba Hydro, the sole electricity provider in Manitoba where roughly 95% of electricity comes from hydropower. IWM models are advanced decision support tools for quantifying water resources system performance under anthropogenic and climate-driven changes. Research is required to develop an IWM model of the Nelson River capable of simulating the complex interconnections and feedback loops between its natural and human-regulated components. Research is also required to estimate the impacts of climate change on future water supplies. To this end, advanced physically-based hydrologic models will be coupled with the IWM model and run for a range of scenarios predicted by regional and global climate models. This project will provide the hydropower industry in Manitoba with data, rigorous technologies, methodology, and personnel to analyze the impact of mid-term operation and long-term resource planning decisions on hydroelectricity production capabilities under a changing climate. Outcomes and developed technologies will be disseminated at national and international journals and conferences and will be transferred to the industrial partner in a workshop designed to increase their knowledge of the new models, and their confidence in applying them to their decision support system. The workshop will be advertised nationally to attract other major hydroelectricity producers, including BC Hydro, Ontario Power Generation and Hydro-Québec. Canada is the 3rd largest hydropower producer on the planet, supplying more than 60% of its electricity demand and more than 80% of its electricity export through hydropower. More efficient hydropower operations will lead to benefits for all Canadians, including increased renewable power production and reduced risks associated with a changing climate.