Groundwater flow dynamics in cold environments under a changing climate

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Groundwater is an important source of freshwater for many Canadians. In northern environments, groundwater is scarce as it is mostly frozen within permafrost and cannot be readily used for water supply. As a consequence of climate change and associated increases in air temperatures, permafrost is thawing on a global scale. The consequence is that water is released and groundwater may become an important new resource as it is generally safer, more reliable and less expensive than surface water, which is the most common source of drinking water for communities in northern Canada. In southern Canada and elsewhere in the world, much of the existing groundwater resources were emplaced thousands of years ago in colder environments. Some of these waters originated from the melting of ice sheets that covered extensive parts of the northern hemisphere landscape about 21,000 years ago. In some locations like Estonia, groundwater of glacial origin is an important source of non-renewable freshwater. The sound and sustainable management of these resources requires a good scientific understanding of their origin and extent, as well as the driving forces acting on them. Numerical models are powerful tools that can be used for this purpose. In this research program, complex numerical models that enable predicting groundwater flow dynamics and availability in cold environments under a changing climate will be used and validated with field observations. The research will be conducted at two sites located in Nunavik (Umiujaq and Salluit) along with two other sites located in southern Québec and Estonia. The research will include field experiments and simulation of groundwater flow and temperature under past and future climate change scenarios at time scales ranging from 100 to 100,000 yrs. The research conducted in this program will provide fundamental knowledge about the nature and evolution of groundwater resources in northern environments. This will contribute to northern development by strengthening Canada's ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions as they affect groundwater resources. The research proposal also addresses key scientific questions pertaining to the fate of glacial meltwaters and rates of permafrost degradation in response to climate change.