Cognitive processes underlying the development of possibility judgements about improbable events: Studies with children and adults

与年龄较大的儿童和成年人不同，学龄前儿童通常会判断不可能的事件，例如制作蓝色苹果酱或在床下发现鳄鱼，这是不可能的。这种发展模式是稳健的，适用于物理，心理和生物领域的现象。通过利用我们关于世界如何运作的先验知识和直觉来推理可能性是人类认知的核心方面。它会影响我们对别人告诉我们的事情的信任，以及我们如何投入时间和精力。因此，了解这种能力的发展是重要的理论和实践的原因。该研究项目的目的是（1）了解为什么儿童和成人对不可能事件的可能性做出不同的判断，以及（2）这种发展是如何发生的。 儿童和成人可能会对不可能事件的可能性做出不同的判断，因为在成人中，这种判断涉及两个阶段的过程，而在儿童中，它最初仅限于一个处理阶段。具体而言，在第一阶段，当被问及一个结果是否可能时，儿童和成人会咨询他们的一般知识和理论。对于某些现象，这种储存的知识提供了明确的答案。然而，对于其他现象，没有答案（至少在最初）。根据这个模型，幼儿（学龄前儿童）通常在第一阶段就停下来，并将没有立即回答解释为反对事件可能发生的证据。相比之下，对于年龄较大的儿童和成人来说，缺乏立即的答案会导致第二阶段的处理，使年龄较大的儿童和成人能够确定这些事件是如何发生的。 三个并行和互补的发展，在儿童的认知假设，以支持部署这两个阶段的过程中，儿童年龄：发展儿童在判断可能性时有选择地应用流畅性和可用性推理的能力，发展儿童运用想象力模拟焦点事件的能力，并寻找与正在考虑的事件类似的事件，以及他们执行功能的发展（这些策略是计算密集型的，这可能使幼儿更难部署它们）。 通过更好地了解儿童如何确定什么是可能的，什么是不可能的，以及为什么这些判断随着时间的推移而变化，这项研究将有助于保持加拿大在认知发展研究方面的领先地位。此外，考虑到许多科学概念在我们第一次遇到它们时似乎是不可能的，这一系列研究有可能帮助改善STEM教育，从而有助于加拿大的全球竞争力。该研究计划还为有兴趣从事各种职业的学生提供了极好的培训机会。

Unlike older children and adults, preschool children typically judge improbable events, such as making blue applesauce or finding an alligator under a bed, to be impossible. This developmental pattern is robust and holds for phenomena across the physical, psychological, and biological domains. Reasoning about possibility by drawing upon our prior knowledge and intuitions about how the world works is a core aspect of human cognition. It impacts our trust in what others tell us and how we invest our time and efforts. Thus, understanding the development of this capacity is important for both theoretical and practical reasons. The aim of this program of research is to (1) understand why children and adults make different judgements about the possibility of improbable events and (2) how this development occurs. Children and adults might be making different judgements about the possibility of improbable events because in adults such judgements involve a two-stage process whereas in children it is initially restricted to one stage of processing. Specifically, at the first stage, when asked whether an outcome is possible, children and adults consult their general knowledge and theories. For some phenomena, this stored knowledge supplies a definite answer. For other phenomena, however, no answer is available (at least initially). According to this model, young children (preschoolers) typically stop at this first stage and interpret the absence of an immediate answer as evidence against the possibility that an event could occur. In contrast, for older children and adults, the lack of an immediate answer leads to a second stage of processing that allows older children and adults to identify how those events could indeed occur. Three concurrent and complementary developments in children's cognition are hypothesized to support the deployment of this two-stage process as children age: developments in children's ability to selectively apply the fluency and availability heuristics in their judgements of possibility, developments in children's ability to use their imagination to simulate how the focal event could come to be and to search for events analogous to the one under consideration, and developments in their executive functions (these strategies are computationally intensive and this may make it harder for young children to deploy them). By better understanding how children determine what is possible and what is impossible, and why these judgements change over time, this research will help maintain Canada's cutting edge in the study of cognitive development. In addition, given that many scientific concepts seem impossible when we first encounter them, this line of research has the potential to help improve STEM education and thus contribute to Canada's global competitiveness. This program of research also offers excellent training opportunities for students interested in pursuing a wide variety of careers.