How tri-trophic interactions and social behaviour drive early instar survival rates of caterpillars

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My goal is to build a process-based conceptual framework for caterpillar early-instar ecology, by determining how phenology, plant physical and chemical defenses, group-living and natural enemies interact to produce emergent patterns of larval survivorship. In general, young larvae are poorly studied, but often suffer very variable high mortality rates caused by interacting species-specific stressors. This high variability in space and time implies that early-larval survival plays an important role in population dynamics. My comparative approach uses three systems chosen for their differences in life history, gregariousness and population dynamics: two important Canadian outbreaking forest pests - spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana, solitary, conifer-feeders), forest tent caterpillars (Malacosoma disstria, gregarious, deciduous-feeders) and the diverse tropical clearwing butterflies (Ithominae, some species gregarious, others solitary). 1. What behavioural mechanisms drive fluctuations in early-instar survival of Eastern Canada's most important forest pest? Extreme variations in early-instar survival constitute an important knowledge gap in predicting budworm outbreaks. I will fill this gap by testing behavioural mechanisms linking host plant phenology, leaf chemistry and previous defoliation to dispersal, competition and establishment of a feeding site. 2. How does group-living modulate tri-trophic interactions in the forest tent caterpillar? I will test the hypothesis that group living implies a decrease in survival rate as groups get smaller, and that this feedback accelerates the attrition due to predation and plant defenses. 3. How does group-living modulate tri-trophic interactions in clearwing caterpillars? I will apply the concepts and tools developed using temperate-zone gregarious caterpillars to the far greater diversity found in the tropics; specifically, I will test how grouping permits establishment on mechanically defended plants and colonization of disturbed habitats. These sub-objectives draw on the particular natural history of each study organism to formulate hypotheses about mechanisms driving early-instar ecology. Together they form an ambitious, innovative, wide-ranging research programme that synthesizes the effects of interacting stressors to explain complex emergent patterns in early-instar survivorship. My unique individual-based approach provides solid scientific grounding for conservation in tropical forests and mechanistic explanations of outbreak dynamics in the boreal forest, including responses to climate warming. The research on outbreaking pests is particularly timely since both are currently on the upsurge across much of Canada.