Modelling the effect of natural and human altered nitrogen and phosphorous cycles on the global carbon cycle and climate warming

模拟自然和人类改变的氮磷循环对全球碳循环和气候变暖的影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03862
• 负责人: MacDougall, Andrew
• 金额: $ 4.66万
• 依托单位: St. Francis Xavier University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751153
• 关键词: Modelling; effect; natural; human; altered

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, humans have had a profound impact on the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles through the burning of fossil fuels, land use change, and artificial fertilizer production. Burning of fossil fuels releases CO2 to the atmosphere where it becomes the primary driver of global warming. However, only about 45% of the carbon emitted to the atmosphere remains in the atmosphere, the remainder is absorbed by the oceans and by the land biosphere. The oceans are expected to remain a sink for carbon far into the future, but whether the land biosphere can continue to take up carbon or will transition to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere remains unclear. Nitrogen and phosphorous are critical elements for life, and limitations in the availability of these elements may limit the ability of the land biosphere to take up carbon, leading to a larger fraction of emitted CO2 remaining in the atmosphere. Although the potential effect of nitrogen and phosphorous limitations has been understood for over a decade, progress in incorporating these elements into Earth System Models has been slow. The objective of this research programme is to improve the understanding of the interaction between biogeochemical feedback cycles and the physical climate system. The five-year goals of the project are to incorporate the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles into an Earth System Model to study how limitations in the availability of nitrogen and phosphorus will effect the magnitude of global warming. The improved model will also allow for the investigation of coastal eutrophication, development of ocean dead zones, and potential for widespread ocean anoxia, that could result from sustained climate change and production of artificial fertilizers. The proposed research would improve the representation of carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change within Earth System Models and therefore contribute to reducing the uncertainty in the total cumulative carbon emissions compatible with the 1.5oC and 2.0oC temperature change guardrails outlined in international agreements. Overall, the proposed research programme aims to improve understanding of the Earth system and humanity's impact on the system's functioning.

自工业革命开始以来，人类通过燃烧化石燃料、改变土地使用和人工肥料生产，对碳、氮和磷循环产生了深远的影响。化石燃料的燃烧将二氧化碳释放到大气中，成为全球变暖的主要驱动力。 然而，排放到大气中的碳只有约45%留在大气中，其余的被海洋和陆地生物圈吸收。预计在未来很长一段时间内，海洋仍将是碳的汇，但陆地生物圈是否能够继续吸收碳或将过渡到大气的净碳源仍不清楚。氮和磷是生命的关键元素，这些元素的可用性有限可能会限制陆地生物圈吸收碳的能力，导致排放的二氧化碳中有更大一部分留在大气中。虽然氮和磷限制的潜在影响已经被理解了十多年，但将这些元素纳入地球系统模型的进展一直很缓慢。 该研究方案的目标是增进对地球化学反馈循环与物理气候系统之间相互作用的了解。该项目的五年目标是将氮和磷循环纳入地球系统模型，以研究氮和磷的可用性限制如何影响全球变暖的程度。 改进后的模型还将允许调查沿海富营养化，海洋死区的发展以及可能因持续气候变化和人造肥料生产而导致的广泛海洋缺氧的可能性。拟议的研究将改善地球系统模型中碳循环对气候变化的反馈的代表性，从而有助于减少与国际协议中概述的1.5oC和2.0oC温度变化护栏相一致的总累积碳排放量的不确定性。总的来说，拟议的研究方案旨在增进对地球系统和人类对该系统运作的影响的了解。