Developing ecosystem-based approaches to address fisheries and climate change impacts for Newfoundland & Labrador marine ecosystems

制定基于生态系统的方法来解决纽芬兰的渔业和气候变化影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-04319
• 负责人: Eddy, Tyler
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=753473
• 关键词: Developing; ecosystem; based; approaches; address

Aims To quantify the ecosystem dynamics of the northeast Newfoundland region through past and at present and make projections of ecosystem response to climate change. This will be undertaken by development of ecosystem models for Newfoundland & Labrador. These models can be used in combination with stock assessments to understand how ecosystem dynamics are influencing the productivity of individual stocks and estimate natural mortality - a key parameter used in stock assessments. An ecosystem modelling framework can be used to: -integrate information from stock assessments, biomass surveys, fisheries landings -inform sustainable harvesting rates across the northeast Newfoundland ecosystem -evaluate multi-species harvest control rules -set dynamic reference points to account for changing system states and transition periods -assessment of (and planning to minimize) cumulative effects -project fisheries productivity and ecosystem dynamics under to climate change Background In Newfoundland and Labrador, fisheries catches and revenues have shifted from those previously dominated by groundfish to invertebrates such as the northern shrimp and snow crab. It has been reported that invertebrate abundance has declined in recent years due to increases in temperature and predation. The contribution of environmental conditions to the collapse of cod has been debated in the literature, as has the relative contribution of fishing and natural mortality through predation by seals. Without an integrated, mechanistically connected framework that accounts for changing abundances of species and their feeding relationships and the influence of environmental conditions on stock productivity, studies evaluating changing ecosystem structure and function are limited. Climate change has already led to changes in abundance and shifts in range of marine species worldwide, and it has been shown that species in Newfoundland ecosystems have differential responses to changes in environmental conditions such as temperature, primary productivity, oxygen, and acidity. In addition to direct and indirect impacts that fishing has had on the structure and function of ecosystems, climate change adds an additional stressor and challenge in the management and prediction of fish stock productivity. There have been regional ocean model system (ROMS) developed for Newfoundland and Labrador which provide fine scale information about oceanographic currents and environmental conditions. These models can be coupled with Earth system models (ESMs) to provide climate change projections of key environmental variables, which can be used as input for Newfoundland ecosystem models to run simulations of climate change under different emissions and fishing scenarios.

目的量化纽芬兰东北部地区过去和现在的生态系统动态，并预测生态系统对气候变化的响应。这将通过为纽芬兰和拉布拉多开发生态系统模型来进行。这些模型可与种群评估结合使用，以了解生态系统动态如何影响单个种群的生产力，并估计自然死亡率-种群评估中使用的一个关键参数。 生态系统建模框架可用于：- 综合从种群评估、生物量调查、渔业上岸量-通知纽芬兰东北部生态系统的可持续捕捞率-评估多物种捕捞控制规则-设置动态参考点，以说明不断变化的系统状态和过渡期-评估（和计划尽量减少）累积效应-气候变化下的渔业生产力和生态系统动态渔业的渔获量和收入已从以前以底栖鱼为主转向以无脊椎动物为主，如北方虾和雪蟹。据报告，近年来，由于温度上升和捕食，无脊椎动物的数量有所减少。环境条件对鳕鱼数量减少的影响在文献中一直存在争议，捕捞和海豹捕食造成的自然死亡率的相对影响也存在争议。如果没有一个综合的，机械连接的框架，占不断变化的物种丰度和喂养关系和环境条件对股票生产力的影响，研究评估不断变化的生态系统结构和功能是有限的。 气候变化已经导致全世界海洋物种数量的变化和范围的转移，并且已经表明，纽芬兰生态系统中的物种对温度、初级生产力、氧气和酸度等环境条件的变化有不同的反应。除了捕鱼对生态系统的结构和功能产生的直接和间接影响外，气候变化给鱼类种群生产力的管理和预测带来了额外的压力和挑战。为纽芬兰和拉布拉多开发的区域海洋模式系统（ROMS）提供了有关洋流和环境条件的精细尺度信息。这些模型可以与地球系统模型（ESM）相结合，提供关键环境变量的气候变化预测，可用作纽芬兰生态系统模型的输入，以模拟不同排放和捕鱼情景下的气候变化。