Non-climatic controls on tree species distributions under climate change

气候变化下树种分布的非气候控制

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05774
• 负责人: Brown, Carissa
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754771
• 关键词: Non; climatic; controls; tree; species

The long-term goal of my research program is to investigate tree species response to climate change as expressed by the expansion, or lack thereof, of their geographic distributions, with a particular focus on the role non-climatic factors play in that response. Predicting the distribution of future species under climate change is one of the greatest scientific challenges we currently face. Usually, scientists try to address this challenge by looking at the direct links between climate and species distributions; however, the effects of non-climatic factors, such as soil conditions or species interactions, can sometimes override climate effects, requiring field experimentation to tease out their individual contributions. My recent research has shown that non-climatic factors, such as seed predation and soil organisms, have an overriding effect on tree species distribution limits under climate change, which can change across life stages. I've also shown that landscape-scale disturbances, such as fires, can spur a species' distributional response to climate change. Over the next five years, my short-term goal is to further advance our understanding of non-climatic controls on species distributions by conducting explicit experiments addressing:1) The relative importance of both biological and environmental interactions on species recruitment at their range/distribution limit during the early part of their lifespan;2) The mechanisms underlying how environmental disturbances can spur a species to expand its range/distribution; and 3) Whether these mechanisms driving species range limits can be generalized to multiple spatial scales and stages of life.This research will use boreal and temperate tree populations, native to Eastern Canada, at their distributional/range limit as model systems. Experiments will be conducted within, at the edge, and beyond a species range limit, and will incorporate multiple life stages. Understanding how a species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of its climatic and non-climatic drivers from germination to reproductive maturity, and how climate-induced changes to disturbance patterns (such as the increase in forest fires) will influence those responses. This research will provide much-need data on where, and under what circumstances, tree range expansion can occur, aiding in our ability to adapt to or mitigate future conditions, which could have potential economic repercussions.

我的研究计划的长期目标是调查树种对气候变化的反应，表现为其地理分布的扩大或缺乏，特别关注非气候因素在这种反应中的作用。预测未来物种在气候变化下的分布是我们目前面临的最大科学挑战之一。通常，科学家们试图通过研究气候和物种分布之间的直接联系来解决这一挑战；然而，非气候因素的影响，如土壤条件或物种相互作用，有时会超过气候影响，需要实地试验来梳理出它们的个人贡献。我最近的研究表明，非气候因素，如种子捕食和土壤生物，对气候变化下的树种分布限制具有压倒一切的影响，这可能在整个生命阶段发生变化。我还展示了景观尺度的干扰，比如火灾，可以刺激物种对气候变化的分布反应。在接下来的五年里，我的短期目标是通过进行明确的实验来进一步推进我们对物种分布的非气候控制的理解：1)在物种生命的早期阶段，生物和环境的相互作用对物种在其范围/分布极限上的招募的相对重要性；2)环境干扰如何刺激物种扩大其范围/分布的机制；3)这些驱动物种范围限制的机制是否可以推广到多个空间尺度和生命阶段。这项研究将使用原产于加拿大东部的北方和温带树木种群作为模型系统，它们的分布/范围有限。实验将在物种范围内、边缘和之外进行，并将纳入多个生命阶段。了解一个物种如何对气候变化作出反应，需要了解其从发芽到生殖成熟的气候和非气候驱动因素，以及气候引起的扰动模式（如森林火灾的增加）的变化将如何影响这些反应。这项研究将提供急需的数据，说明在什么地方、在什么情况下，树木范围会扩大，帮助我们适应或缓解未来可能产生潜在经济影响的条件。