Non-climatic controls on tree species distributions under climate change

气候变化下树种分布的非气候控制

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05774
• 负责人: Brown, Carissa
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754771
• 关键词: Non; climatic; controls; tree; species

The long-term goal of my research program is to investigate tree species response to climate change as expressed by the expansion, or lack thereof, of their geographic distributions, with a particular focus on the role non-climatic factors play in that response. Predicting the distribution of future species under climate change is one of the greatest scientific challenges we currently face. Usually, scientists try to address this challenge by looking at the direct links between climate and species distributions; however, the effects of non-climatic factors, such as soil conditions or species interactions, can sometimes override climate effects, requiring field experimentation to tease out their individual contributions. My recent research has shown that non-climatic factors, such as seed predation and soil organisms, have an overriding effect on tree species distribution limits under climate change, which can change across life stages. I've also shown that landscape-scale disturbances, such as fires, can spur a species' distributional response to climate change. Over the next five years, my short-term goal is to further advance our understanding of non-climatic controls on species distributions by conducting explicit experiments addressing:1) The relative importance of both biological and environmental interactions on species recruitment at their range/distribution limit during the early part of their lifespan;2) The mechanisms underlying how environmental disturbances can spur a species to expand its range/distribution; and 3) Whether these mechanisms driving species range limits can be generalized to multiple spatial scales and stages of life.This research will use boreal and temperate tree populations, native to Eastern Canada, at their distributional/range limit as model systems. Experiments will be conducted within, at the edge, and beyond a species range limit, and will incorporate multiple life stages. Understanding how a species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of its climatic and non-climatic drivers from germination to reproductive maturity, and how climate-induced changes to disturbance patterns (such as the increase in forest fires) will influence those responses. This research will provide much-need data on where, and under what circumstances, tree range expansion can occur, aiding in our ability to adapt to or mitigate future conditions, which could have potential economic repercussions.

我的研究计划的长期目标是调查树种对气候变化的反应，表现为其地理分布的扩大或缺乏，特别关注非气候因素在该反应中发挥的作用。预测气候变化下未来物种的分布是我们目前面临的最大科学挑战之一。通常，科学家试图通过研究气候与物种分布之间的直接联系来应对这一挑战。然而，非气候因素的影响，例如土壤条件或物种相互作用，有时会超越气候影响，需要进行实地实验来弄清楚它们各自的贡献。我最近的研究表明，种子捕食和土壤生物等非气候因素对气候变化下的树种分布限制具有压倒性的影响，而气候变化可能会在整个生命阶段发生变化。我还表明，景观规模的干扰，例如火灾，可以刺激物种对气候变化的分布反应。在接下来的五年中，我的短期目标是通过进行明确的实验来进一步加深我们对物种分布的非气候控制的理解：1）生物和环境相互作用对物种在其生命早期的范围/分布限制下补充的相对重要性；2）环境干扰如何刺激物种扩大其范围/分布的机制； 3）这些驱动物种范围限制的机制是否可以推广到多个空间尺度和生命阶段。本研究将使用原产于加拿大东部的北方和温带树木种群，以其分布/范围限制作为模型系统。实验将在物种范围限制之内、边缘和之外进行，并将涵盖多个生命阶段。要了解一个物种如何应对气候变化，需要了解其从发芽到生殖成熟的气候和非气候驱动因素，以及气候引起的干扰模式变化（例如森林火灾的增加）将如何影响这些反应。这项研究将提供急需的数据，说明树木范围在何处以及在什么情况下可能会扩大，有助于我们适应或减轻未来条件的能力，这可能会产生潜在的经济影响。