Non-climatic controls on tree species distributions under climate change

气候变化下树种分布的非气候控制

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05774
• 负责人: Brown, Carissa
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754771
• 关键词: Non; climatic; controls; tree; species

The long-term goal of my research program is to investigate tree species response to climate change as expressed by the expansion, or lack thereof, of their geographic distributions, with a particular focus on the role non-climatic factors play in that response. Predicting the distribution of future species under climate change is one of the greatest scientific challenges we currently face. Usually, scientists try to address this challenge by looking at the direct links between climate and species distributions; however, the effects of non-climatic factors, such as soil conditions or species interactions, can sometimes override climate effects, requiring field experimentation to tease out their individual contributions. My recent research has shown that non-climatic factors, such as seed predation and soil organisms, have an overriding effect on tree species distribution limits under climate change, which can change across life stages. I've also shown that landscape-scale disturbances, such as fires, can spur a species' distributional response to climate change. Over the next five years, my short-term goal is to further advance our understanding of non-climatic controls on species distributions by conducting explicit experiments addressing:1) The relative importance of both biological and environmental interactions on species recruitment at their range/distribution limit during the early part of their lifespan;2) The mechanisms underlying how environmental disturbances can spur a species to expand its range/distribution; and 3) Whether these mechanisms driving species range limits can be generalized to multiple spatial scales and stages of life.This research will use boreal and temperate tree populations, native to Eastern Canada, at their distributional/range limit as model systems. Experiments will be conducted within, at the edge, and beyond a species range limit, and will incorporate multiple life stages. Understanding how a species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of its climatic and non-climatic drivers from germination to reproductive maturity, and how climate-induced changes to disturbance patterns (such as the increase in forest fires) will influence those responses. This research will provide much-need data on where, and under what circumstances, tree range expansion can occur, aiding in our ability to adapt to or mitigate future conditions, which could have potential economic repercussions.

我的研究计划的长期目标是调查树种对气候变化的反应，如其地理分布的扩展或缺乏其地理分布所表达的，特别关注非气候因素在该反应中所起的作用。在气候变化下预测未来物种的分布是我们目前面临的最大科学挑战之一。通常，科学家试图通过查看气候和物种分布之间的直接联系来应对这一挑战。但是，非气候因素（例如土壤条件或物种相互作用）的影响有时会覆盖气候影响，需要实地实验才能取消其个人贡献。我最近的研究表明，在气候变化下，非气候因素（例如种子捕食和土壤生物）对树种物种分布限制具有压倒性影响，这可能会在跨生活阶段发生变化。我还表明，景观规模的干扰（例如火灾）可以刺激物种对气候变化的分布反应。在接下来的五年中，我的短期目标是通过进行明确的实验来进一步提高我们对物种分布的非气候控制的理解：1）生物和环境相互作用在其生命周期初期的范围/分布范围内对物种募集的相对重要性； 3）这些机制是否可以将物种范围限制推广到多个空间尺度和生活阶段。这项研究将以加拿大东部的分布/范围限制作为模型系统使用北方和温带树种群。实验将在边缘内，超出物种范围限制内进行，并结合多个生命阶段。了解一个物种将如何应对气候变化，需要了解其从发芽到生殖成熟的气候和非气候驱动因素，以及气候引起的对干扰模式的变化（例如森林火灾的增加）如何影响这些反应。这项研究将提供急需的数据，以了解可能在何处以及在何种情况下发生扩展树范围，这有助于我们适应或减轻未来条件的能力，这可能会带来潜在的经济影响。