New order of risk management: Theory and applications in the era of systemic risk

风险管理新秩序：系统性风险时代的理论与应用

• 批准号: 580632-2022
• 负责人: Furman, EdwardE
• 金额: $ 10.87万
• 依托单位: York University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Alliance Grants
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=758786
• 关键词: New; order; risk; management; Theory

The systems on which society depends are increasingly more open and connected, and the people, goods, services, technology, and information supporting these systems are increasingly more mobile. Inevitably, the overall risk landscape nowadays is increasingly more systemic. The COVID-19 crisis and the Geopolitical Crisis in Ukraine are ongoing examples of materialized systemic risks (SRs) that highlight the change and serve as a reminder of the global urgency to act on taming SRs immediately, before a point where we may no longer be able to mitigate and repair the impacts of such risks is reached. However, to be able to deal with SRs successfully, there is an acute need for a fundamental transformation in how we think of and manage risk, beginning with a better understanding of the notion of SR itself. We need to adopt a broader view of risk and deal with the complexity of its systemic nature without resorting to notions that isolate and remove from context. Hence, we need to consider risk as a complex physical phenomenon - with inputs from the formal and natural sciences, and as an equally complex social phenomenon - with inputs from the social sciences, under the understanding that the physical and the social are intertwined. In this research program, we will develop a comprehensive theory of SR that combines the physical and social dimensions of risk, its spatial and temporal domains, and its primary and secondary channels of impact within a framework that acknowledges differences in risk vulnerability and susceptibility. Then, building on the enhanced theoretical understanding of SR, we will: (1) redefine the risk management control cycle by revamping its stages to explicitly integrate SR; (2) develop risk financing mechanisms capable to cushion the financial consequences of SRs; (3) devise regulatory instruments that measure the inclusivity of SR transfer mechanisms and ensure accurate and fair reflection of the attribution to SR in regulatory accords.

社会所依赖的系统越来越开放和连接，支持这些系统的人员、商品、服务、技术和信息也越来越移动的。不可避免的是，如今的整体风险格局越来越系统化。2019冠状病毒病危机和乌克兰地缘政治危机是系统性风险（SR）的持续实例，突显了这一变化，并提醒全球迫切需要立即采取行动驯服SR，以免我们可能无法再减轻和修复此类风险的影响。然而，为了能够成功地处理员工代表，我们迫切需要从根本上改变我们如何看待和管理风险的方式，首先要更好地理解员工代表的概念本身。我们需要对风险采取更广泛的观点，处理其系统性的复杂性，而不是诉诸孤立和脱离背景的概念。因此，我们需要将风险视为一种复杂的物理现象--有正规科学和自然科学的投入，并将其视为一种同样复杂的社会现象--有社会科学的投入，因为物理和社会是相互交织的。在这项研究计划中，我们将开发一个全面的SR理论，结合风险的物理和社会层面，其空间和时间域，以及在一个框架内，承认风险脆弱性和易感性的差异影响的主要和次要渠道。然后，在对SR理论认识的基础上，我们将：（1）重新定义风险管理控制周期，通过修改其各个阶段，明确纳入SR;（2）发展能够缓冲SR财务后果的风险融资机制;（3）制定监管工具，衡量员工关系转移机制的包容性，并确保在监管协议中准确和公平地反映员工关系的归属。