Sensitivity of river ecosystems to global change: Assessing land management strategies to mitigate the combined impacts of climate warming and land use changes in cold temperate regions

河流生态系统对全球变化的敏感性：评估土地管理策略，以减轻寒温带地区气候变暖和土地利用变化的综合影响

基本信息

批准号：
RGPIN-2017-06571
负责人：
Campeau, Stéphane
金额：
$ 1.6万
依托单位：
Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=765341
关键词：
Sensitivity river ecosystems global change

项目摘要

How climate-induced warming will interact with future land use changes remains largely unknown. Most studies that have attempted to forecast the effect of climatic changes on hydrology and water quality consider that watershed configuration would not be altered. However, it is likely that land use will continue to evolve over the next decades and that it will have an important influence on future watershed hydrology and water quality. Future climatic changes, combined with land use modifications and land management practices will create complex interactions and feedbacks in aquatic ecosystems.The long-term objectives of this research program are to examine the sensitivity of river benthic algae (diatoms) to the combined impacts of climatic and land use changes and to evaluate the efficiency of a set of mitigation strategies to maintain the integrity of river ecosystems. To fulfill the objectives of this research program, three methodological approaches are proposed, involving different study designs and temporal and spatial scales. First, the relationships between benthic diatoms and environmental factors (water temperature and flow, sediment and nutrient regimes) will be investigated empirically and at a large spatial scale based on data from a monitoring network extending over more than 800 stream reaches in Eastern Canada. Second, the relationships between benthic diatoms and environmental factors will be tested by means of periphyton experiments in stream mesocosms. Finally, the combined impact of global change scenarios on river benthic diatoms will be investigated using a watershed model (GIBSI), whereby a calibrated hydrological model will be forced with climatic inputs representing several global warming scenarios. In addition to climate simulations, land use and mitigation scenarios will be applied for testing the effects of specific socio-economic measures aimed at reducing point or diffuse nutrient emissions.Although there is a wide consensus about climatic warming, there is less certainty about the likely impacts on water quality and river ecosystems due to changes in regional precipitation and land use. The results of this research program will enable stakeholders to develop strategies to better adapt to climate change impacts and enhance the ecological integrity of Eastern Canadian rivers. Designs for new farming practices and land use planning will have to incorporate climate change effects, and new operational procedures may be required. Our findings will be useful to define plans for long-term land use zoning that is protective of water quality under a changing climate. The results of this research could be quickly incorporated into practice as part of our collaborations with the stakeholders of 80 agricultural watersheds undergoing algae-based monitoring.

气候引起的变暖将与未来的土地使用变化相互作用，这在很大程度上是未知的。大多数试图预测气候变化对水文学和水质的影响的研究都不会改变流域的配置。但是，在未来几十年中，土地利用可能会继续发展，并且它将对未来的流域水文学和水质产生重要影响。未来的气候变化，再加上土地利用修改和土地管理实践将在水生生态系统中产生复杂的相互作用和反馈。该研究计划的长期目标是研究河边底栖藻类（Diotoms）对气候和土地使用变化的综合影响的敏感性，并评估河流的一组河流的效率。为了实现该研究计划的目标，提出了三种方法学方法，涉及不同的研究设计以及时间和空间量表。首先，将根据监测网络从加拿大东部的800多个流延伸的监测网络中的数据，根据监测网络扩展到的数据，对底栖硅藻与环境因素（水温和流动，沉积物和养分状态）之间的关系进行经验和大空间量表进行研究。其次，底栖硅藻与环境因素之间的关系将通过流中膜中的周围实验进行测试。最后，将使用流域模型（GIBSI）研究全球变化情景对河底栖硅藻的综合影响，通过代表几种全球变暖场景的气候投入，将强迫校准的水文模型。除气候模拟外，还将采用土地使用和缓解情景来测试旨在减少旨在减少点或弥漫性营养排放的特定社会经济措施的影响。尽管对气候变暖的共识广泛，但由于对水质和降水量的变化而可能影响的确定性较小，因此对降水的可能影响较小。该研究计划的结果将使利益相关者能够制定策略，以更好地适应气候变化的影响并增强东部加拿大河流的生态完整性。新的农业实践和土地利用计划的设计将必须纳入气候变化效果，并且可能需要新的操作程序。我们的发现对于定义长期土地使用分区的计划将很有用，该计划在不断变化的气候下保护水质。这项研究的结果可以很快被纳入实践中，这是我们与80个基于藻类监测的农业流域的利益相关者合作的一部分。