不同短历时强降水条件下城市内涝影响因素研究

受全球变暖和城市化影响，短历时强降水引发的城市内涝问题愈发突出，已成为城市水文和灾害学研究的前沿热点问题。然而，相关监测和记录数据的缺乏，导致目前缺少对短历时强降水时空分布特征及其与城市内涝之间内在联系的深入研究。研究以高度城市化、短历时强降水频发的北京大红门地区为例，通过对降雨样本集的特征提取和聚类分析，揭示变化环境下高度城市化地区短历时强降水的时空分布特征。采用水文水动力学耦合模型构建地区精细化雨洪模型，探讨不同短历时强降水条件下城市内涝的响应机制。利用精细化模型输出的内涝积水信息和栅格化处理后的城市产汇流信息构建二项Logistic模型，阐明不同尺度下高度城市化地区内涝程度及其影响因素间的内在关系。结合敏感性分析方法，明确影响典型易涝区内涝灾害的关键因素。研究对提高城市内涝灾害的认识、丰富城市灾害学的理论体系具有重要意义，可为区域制定城市内涝防治规划和雨洪管理措施提供科学支撑。

Affected by global warming and urbanization, the problem of urban waterlogging caused by short-duration heavy rainfall has become more prominent. It has become a frontier and hot issue in urban hydrology and disaster research. However, the lack of relevant monitoring and recording data leads to the lack of in-depth research on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-duration heavy rainfall and its internal relationship with urban waterlogging. The Dahongmen area of Beijing, highly urbanized and with frequent short-duration heavy rainfall, is selected as the study area. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-duration heavy rainfall in highly urbanized areas under changing environments are revealed through feature extraction and cluster analysis of the rainfall sample set. A refined urban flood model in the Dahongmen area uses a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to explore urban waterlogging response mechanism under different short-term heavy rainfall conditions. The binomial logistic model uses the waterlogging information output from the refined urban flood model and the urban runoff information after grid processing to quantitatively analyze the internal relationship between the degree of waterlogging and its influencing factors in highly urbanized areas under the change scale. The key factors affecting waterlogging disasters in specific waterlogging prone areas are clarified with the sensitivity analysis method. The research is of great significance to improve the understanding of the urban waterlogging disaster and enrich urban disaster science's theoretical system. It can provide scientific support for the regional formulation of urban waterlogging prevention and control planning and urban flood management measures.