高速公路环境下基于出行者行为视角的可变信息板管理研究

可变信息板是高速公路网络流量管理的重要工具。针对当前国内高速公路管理过程中出现的两个主要问题：路网流量不均衡和交通事故与事件频发，我们设计了本项研究。项目研究目标是加深可变信息板对出行者行为的理解，并由此建立基于可变信息板的交通网络实时诱导系统。首先，分析个体出行者对可变信息板内容的响应机理，建立基于多智能体的出行者路径选择行为模型。其次，针对异质可变信息板、不同的道路网络结构和事故情况，设计合理的可变信息板选址模型。再次，设计基于可变信息板的最优信息发布策略，主要包括针对单个点位和多个点位的情景，并与匝道控制相结合。最后，建立计算机仿真平台和在典型区域实践所设计的最优信息发布策略。本项目综合利用问卷调查、实验室行为实验、计算机仿真和数学优化等方法进行研究。项目旨在提高交通管理实践中可变信息板的使用水平和效率。

Variable Message Sign is very important tool for highway network management. This project is motivated by two commonly seen phenomenon in highway management which are highly unbalanced network flow and recurrent accidents and incidents. The aim of this project is to have a deeper understanding of travelers’ behavior of variable message sign and thereafter design a real time variable message sign based highway guidance systems. Firstly, the response mechanism of individual’s behavior on variable message sign is going to be revealed. The multi-agent model of travelers’ behavior is designed. Secondly, based on the heterogeneous variable message sign, different highway network structure and accident scenarios, the optimal location of variable message sign is going to be figured out. Thirdly, real time variable message sign information release strategy is going to be optimized by considering only one accident location and multiple locations. In addition, variable message sign is optimized together with ramp control. Finally, all the behavioral rules and quantitative methods are going to be applied in a computer simulation model and a small size realistic and typical highway network. The methods used in this project include questionnaire survey, economical experiment, computer simulation and mathematical program. The project helps providing managerial guidance for transportation administration.