数据驱动模拟的太阳爆发预报研究

本项目拟采用数据驱动模拟方法建立数值化太阳活动预报模型。该模型利用国内外天基和地基观测数据和数值驱动模拟技术，实现太阳活动区演化仿真和太阳爆发过程模拟。主要研究内容包括（1）利用计算机三维仿真技术，建立虚拟三维太阳作为太阳活动预报平台；（2）利用时序化观测数据作为驱动数据，采用松弛方法给出平衡状态下日冕各类物理参量按照时序的变化，从而模拟太阳爆发前物理状态。

A numerical solar activity forecasting model will be setup with data driven simulation method, in which data from space and ground based observations and data driven numerical simulation are employed. The research contents includes (1) 3D virtual sun is steup with 3D simulation technology as a platform of solar activity forecast；（2）Observational data in time sequence are taken to be driven data and quasi static evolution of physical parameters in active regions is given with relaxation mothod, and then the physical statis before solar eruptions is numerical simulated.