目前我国少数民族学生生长发育的研究，多局限于二手资料分析，较少利用多年度少数民族生长发育原始资料库，使用多水平模型等手段进行不同少数民族学生生长长期趋势模式比较，以及与社会经济和自然环境因素长期变化的相关性研究。本课题组通过前期的工作，已掌握目前我国部分少数民族学生生长长期趋势的模式，本项目拟在此基础上，首次使用多水平模型，分析从1985年到2015年，蒙古族、回族、藏族、朝鲜族、壮族、维吾尔族等18个少数民族学生青春期发育、各年龄组身高、体重发育、成年身高以及身体比例变化间的差异；本研究拟分析少数民族学生生长长期趋势与30年来社会经济、自然环境等因素变化的相关关系，分析各民族生长长期趋势差异产生的原因，从而制定干预措施促进其生长潜力发挥，并为提出有建设性的民族政策提出依据；本研究还将根据历史数据使用时间序列法预测未来少数民族学生成年身高，为促进少数民族学生健康成长提供参考。

Currently, the studies on the changes on secular growth of minority students in China have been limited to the secondary data analysis and rarely used original datasets. The multilevel models has not been used in the long-term trend of growth among different minority students before, and few studies on the association between secular growth and social economic and natural environmental factors have been reported. Based on the previous work, we have known the models of secular growth in part of the ethnic minorities, and in this study we plan to: (1) use the multilevel models to analyze the difference on puberty development, height and weight at each age group, adult height, changes in body proportions from 1985 to 2015 among Mongolian, Hui, Tibetan, Korean, Zhuang, Uygur and other 12 ethnic minorites in China; (2) analyze the association between the secular growth and social economic and natural environmental factors, so as to understand the causes of the difference between each minority, and help develop interventions to promote its growth potential and provide the basis of specific and constuctive ethnic policy; (3) use time series method to predict the adult height among different minority students in the future, and provide references to promot the healthy growth of the minority students.