基于时间序列的空气质量与生活污水中哮喘药物残留的关系

空气质量恶化导致呼吸系统发病风险增大，表现为病患就诊量及治疗药物服用量加大，并进一步使生活污水中相关药物残留浓度升高。传统流行病学法的因果关系研究耗资大、时效性差、主观因素强、致病因子不明确，且患病人数可能被低估。本研究拟从生活污水中药品与个人护理品残留的角度进行环境质量与疾病关系的方法学研究，以哮喘这一呼吸系统多发病为例，分析一年中广州市污水处理厂进水、市内河涌中孟鲁司特钠等4种哮喘治疗药物的浓度，采用格兰杰因果关系检验和时间序列回归的统计学手段，建立每日空气质量指标（自变量）与不同种类哮喘药物人均消费量（因变量）的关联性模型，得到两者关系的季节及长期变动趋势。基于污水中药物残留信息所建立的环境质量与疾病（暴露-反应）的快速、低成本统计方法，可为多种环境因素对不同类型人群的健康影响预测提供范例，实现对敏感人群的预警、降低发病率、减少医疗支出、减轻环境污染，具有明显社会、经济和环境效益。

The deterioration of air quality increases the risk of respiratory disorders, hospital admission, and treatment prescription, then the residue of the medicines in sewage increase as well. The traditional epidemic methods for the sequence and causation study are based on survey are time and cost consuming, subjective, and may underestimate the number of patients. The main objective of this research is developing a new method to study the relationship between the four asthma medicine residues and the environmental variables that captures air quality. Firstly, we will analyze the daily medicines' concentrations in the sewage from two municipal wastewater treatment plants in one year. After calculating the de facto population attributing to the wastewater, we can estimate the medicine consumed per capita, by dividing the total consumption of the medicine by the estimated population. Then, we can run a Granger causality test and a time series multiple linear models to regress the relationship between air quality and medicines’ mass loads. From the results, we can obtain the tendencies of the seasonal and long term change of the environmental quality and diseases. The statistics based on the residue medicines in sewage is a fast and low-cost method to establish the exposure-reaction relationship which can provide a model for many types of disease prediction related to environmental factors. This work is contribute to the forecast of sensitive population, decreasing the morbidity, medical expenditure, and environmental pollution, and will have obvious social, economic, and environmental profits.