定量理解气候变化和人类活动对沙漠化地区生态系统服务的实际和潜在影响，是区域可持续发展需要解决的重要科学问题。本项目拟以浑善达克沙地为研究区，依据“气候变化/人类活动-沙漠化过程-生态系统服务”的景观可持续科学研究范式，采用结构方程模型阐明1990-2018年气候变化和人类活动对区域生态系统服务的影响；在此基础上，耦合系统动力学模型、元胞自动机模型和生态系统服务评估模型，发展沙漠化地区评估气候变化和人类活动对生态系统服务影响的动力学情景模型；在“气候变化-社会经济-政策假设”三个维度上设置未来区域气候变化和人类活动情景，模拟浑善达克沙地2020-2050年的生态系统服务格局动态，通过综合对比评估未来气候变化和人类活动对主要生态系统服务的潜在影响，提出区域应对气候变化的沙漠化土地管控对策。预期结果可为气候变化背景下沙漠化地区可持续的土地管理提供理论依据和技术支撑。

Quantitative assessment of the actual and potential impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services is one of the most important scientific questions to be solved during the sustainable development of sandy desertification areas. Taking the Otindag Sandy Land, China, as the study area, the project was designed based on the framework for landscape sustainability science, which is "Climate change/human activities - Sandy desertification - Ecosystem services". Firstly, the actual impact of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services from 1990 to 2015 is revealed using the structural equation modeling. Based on this, the impacts evaluation scenarios dynamics model for sandy desertification area was developed by coupling system dynamics model, cellular automata model and ecosystem service evaluation model. Then, the scenarios is set based on the new scenario framework characterized by three dimensions including the level of radiative forcing of the climate system, future socio-economic development and explicit mitigation and adaptation policies. Using the newly developed model, the ecosystem services scenarios of the Otindag Sandy Land during 2020-2050 are then simulated. Finally, the potential impact of future climate change and human activities are assessed by comprehensively comparing results of different scenarios and the optimal desertified land management strategies for climate change are proposed. The project is expected to deliver scientific theory and technical support for the sustainable land management of desertified area facing future climate change.