不确定信息破片群威力态势目标毁伤评估方法研究

空间防空拦截破片散布测试及目标毁伤效能评估一直是国内外研究热点和难题，弹目交汇近炸形成的破片散布和毁伤目标的自身因素等具有不确定性和不完备性，很难科学给出近炸破片威力态势目标毁伤计算与决策评估，本课题提出双光场相机交汇破片群散布参数测试方法和发展收益不确定信息破片群威力态势多参数关联的目标毁伤评估计算方法。研究破片参数与目标毁伤因子关联作用机理，分析破片群多维空间位置威力态势分布特性，建立破片威力态势模型和不确定信息破片群威力收益-损失评价机制；研究基于收益不确定信息目标毁伤关联计算方法与毁伤效能决策评估算法，明确破片威力态势收益-损失与目标毁伤制约关系，揭示近炸破片群威力态势与目标毁伤效能变化规律，形成不确定信息破片群威力态势目标毁伤效能评估体系。项目具有前瞻性和挑战性，研究成果可为弹药安全性试验、防空作战毁伤效能评估、智能弹药毁伤效能评估等奠定科学理论计算基础，具有很高的理论研究价值。

Warhead fragments dispersion testing of space air defense interception and target damage effectiveness assessment have always been research hotspots, it is also a difficult problems to overcome at home and aboard; when the projectile explodes and forms a warhead fragments group at the intersection state of the projectile and the flight target in space, there are many uncertain information and incompleteness factors on warhead fragments dispersion and the self-destructive factors of damage target, it is very difficult to scientifically give an decision assessment and a target damage calculation method of proximity warhead fragments combat power situation. This project proposes a warhead fragments group dispersion parameters testing method by using two light filed cameras intersection principle and develops a target damage assessment calculation method with multi-parameter correlation based on the combat power situation of warhead fragments dispersion under uncertain gain information; researches a correlation mechanism between warhead fragments parameters and target damage factors; analyzes the combat power situation distribution characteristics of warhead fragments in multidimensional space; sets up a combat power situation model of warhead fragments and an evaluation mechanism of gain-losses on warhead fragments combat power with uncertain information; researches the target damage correlation calculation method and damage effectiveness decision assessment algorithm based on the condition of gain uncertain information; explicates the restriction relation of warhead fragments combat power situation gain-losses and target damage; reveals the change rule of proximity warhead fragments combat power situation and target damage effectiveness, and forms the target damage effectiveness assessment system of warhead fragments combat power situation with uncertain information. This project have prospective and challenging, the research achievements can provide scientific theory foundation for ammunition safety testing, air defense campaign effectiveness assessment and smart ammunition damage effectiveness assessment, and has very high scientific theory research value.